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Patience is needed to follow the clues.
Also follow the actuaries, because they are demanding.
Of course, this is how they earn their day. Even Dr. Paola Luraschi, who doesn’t earn anything from us, but is still picky.
Is there more concern than putting together a complicated death probability table with and without Covid-19, a number table that drives you crazy just to understand it, and then stomp on it like a used Kleenex?
Yes there is
It is to elaborate another.
Here it is.
This is the increase in mortality with Covid-19 divided by gender and age. How many women and men die, basically.
Luraschi makes the calculations and explains that up to seventy years the increase is more or less similar. The older you get, the easier it is to die with Coronavirus, be it women or men. Same.
Which is a good hot water discovery.
But then what?
Suddenly, if you are in the age group of 70 to 79 years and you are a man, you die 6% less than in the previous age group, the age group of 60 to 69. But if you are a woman, be careful, 799% more die.
Eight hundred percent more than your sixty-year-old friends.
Crazy, huh?
But be careful, it’s not around here.
Because if you go to the next band, the one from 80 to 89, everything turns around.
If you are a child, 200% more die than your seventy-year-old friends, but if you are a woman, 32% less.
Thirty-two percent less.
But weren’t you the ones who died 800% more?
Well, now we are the ones who die 32% less.
But what is the point?
No one, Luraschi explains.
We are fine
Another Kleenex.
But no, Luraschi explains. It is the data at the source that does not make sense. It is the first thing that caught my attention. Partly because they are still very few and partly because they are poorly collected. The problem of data quality is fundamental, otherwise you risk drawing the wrong consequences. These attribute to Coronavirus everything, all the pathologies of the ancient. They are dirty data. Regardless of the disease you have, if you have coronavirus, you have died of coronavirus. That is not true. If you give me the aggregated data, how can I evaluate it? On the nose, I don’t know 90-year-olds who don’t even have a cold. But if I take them all and put them in the box with the word Covid-19, it means that I take them from the other group, the normal ones. Those with normal age-related illnesses. If you had two days to die of cancer and then you are dead from Coronavirus, I will necessarily have many deaths from Coronavirus. Thank you so much. They just moved you from one group to another. A crazy rash.
So in the end are there far fewer deaths attributable to the Coronavirus?
Insurance.
How much?
Impossible to say. It should be a magician. That they are overestimated is a fact. Overestimate these and underestimate others. It is self-evident. If you are a cardiac patient and have taken Coronavirus, it will not end in the heart disease statistics, but in the Coronavirus statistics. So drugs that statistic to lower it and drugs this one to increase it. It is a double distortion effect, madness.
Madness
This is how Luraschi explains it.
And I also.
But how do you get out of madness?
Investigating, explains Luraschi.
Of course We are in a yellow.
29 / continue in the next episode
May 4, 2020 (change May 4, 2020 | 09:11)
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