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The crisis in the darkness of Giuseppe Conte’s government could erupt in three days or tomorrow. The Council of Ministers convened on January 7 to discuss the Recovery Plan, but according to some rumors the Prime Minister would be ready to advance it to 4. If the correct date is 4 or 7, Matteo Renzi has decided on that occasion . withdraw the ministers and the support of the executive leaving it without a majority in early 2021 while in Italy the coronavirus emergency could face its third wave and work on the mass vaccination plan must be done.
Is the crisis in the darkness of the Conte government looming on January 7?
Renzi’s tear would accelerate the path that will decide the fate of the tenant of Palazzo Chigi. The reorganization hypotheses have been pursued for weeks. But both Renzi and the prime minister have ruled out the issue being on the agenda. “No one asked,” Conte said. At the press conference at the end of the year, the prime minister said: “If the confidence of a party fails, I will go to Parliament.” And that is why currently the alternatives for Giuseppe Conte are basically three:
- The first, what seems the least likely at this point, is that peace with Renzi will break out between January 4 and 7 and that the majority will find an agreement within it that makes Italia Viva happy and ends up making everyone agree ;
- The second is that Count-Ter changes without the Renzianos but with a group of senators (at least twelve are needed) who give a new majority to the executive to continue at least until the white semester, which begins in August 2021;
- the third is that a new government arrives and, therefore, after two and a half years Conte leaves Palazzo Chigi.
The crisis in the darkness of the Conte government is already a fact. And Renzi has his own insider solution to shutting it down: a new government led by an exponent of the Democratic Party and not Mario Draghi, who would still be unlikely to accept a party position, even if many predict a double jump for the party. Former President of the European Central Bank: he arrived at Palazzo Chigi to move to the Quirinal one year later in the place of Sergio Mattarella with the same majority, perhaps extended to Forza Italia and even to that League that maintains a privileged communication channel with him.
But for now this is really political fiction. And it also seems likely that it will continue to be so. Meanwhile, the predictions of the solution of the crisis are entrusted to the bottom of the newspapers. the Corriere della Sera writes today that Renzi’s name for Palazzo Chigi is that of Dario Franceschini with Luigi Di Maio Deputy Prime Minister. But both the Democratic Party and the 5 Star Movement hope Conte will find the key to the problem. Through a reorganization that would involve the sacrifice of technical minister Luciana Lamorgese to offer Renzi Foreign Relations by transferring Di Maio to the Interior. But Conte doesn’t seem to have any intention of giving up. He prefers that the game be moved to the CdM where Italia Viva will be forced to decide whether or not to vote for the Recovery Plan. If he does not, the Prime Minister will appear in Parliament to see if he has a majority. And there, in any case, falling with a count to the last vote that would lead the country to chaos and the opposition to ask for elections in March.
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Lightning crisis and Conte-ter: the strategy of Pd and M5S
And that the path has now been drawn is confirmed by the President of Italy Viva Ettore Rosato in an interview with The impression: “We have been very clear about the things we will do if there is not a change of direction in the method and the content. Either we work seriously for Italy and our ideas are useful or, if they are useless, they will also do it without our votes.” And replacing them with those of managers seems more difficult today: The messenger Today he explains that the three UDC senators are not there, the three parliamentarians from Toti who sit in the Palazzo Madama step back and, at the end of the calculation, it is also possible to count on the fingers of one hand how many from Forza Italia or the former grillini would have been available to collaborate with the prime minister. Renzi’s 18 senators are still indispensable for survival, but so are Renzi’s 30 deputies in Montecitorio: without them the executive would not have a majority in Palazzo Madama (set at least at 159), stopping at 142, compared to 139 senators. from the right center. And therefore, as there are no numbers to dispense with Renzi, according to the newspaper, there are still three hypotheses on the ground:
- the first, the one most appreciated by Conte, is the “reorganization” because it avoids the risk of resigning;
- the second is the birth of Count-Ter with a political agreement with Italia Viva and the re-election of Mattarella; Thus the crisis would be avoided in the dark but the government would still be without full powers for a few days;
- the third is dynamism, which is explained in the words of an anonymous minister: “Renzi’s ability to maneuver is proverbial and nothing leads to the exclusion, despite his proclamations, that in the coming days the Renzi ministers Bellanova and Bonetti they will not vote on the Recovery Plan. ” , but without giving up. In this case the crisis would not open and we could continue to float until June. At that time, close to the white semester, Renzi leaving the government would not be risky: elections would be impossible.
Finally, the Ansa news agency writes that among the Democrats the vote begins to emerge as one of the most practicable consequences in the event of a crisis. In addition, in his end-of-year speech, President Sergio Mattarella highlighted how the “restart” will be the focus of his last year at the Quirinal. “Translated, I could say that the head of state, in the event of a crisis, would ensure the approval of the Recovery Plan, with a new government, but with the prospect of elections in the next six months,” is the observation made. between more than one deputy of the majority. And it is a solution that many do not like, even in Iv where, he assures those who have contacts with Renzian groups, not all would follow their leader in the race towards crisis. From this point of view, many things could change in the grillini’s plans: as several M5S sources reveal to the Press, in recent days the entire steering group, ministers and undersecretaries for the second term, “elderly” deputies and senators , have been found discussing polls. and face them with a double chance:
- a Conte list, if it were to ever really come into being, could serve to guarantee those who, due to the M5S rules, would no longer have the opportunity to return to Parliament;
- the second possibility: no list of the prime minister would be born, Conte would be the federation in the style of Romano Prodi in 2006, and Grillo, according to the leaders of the M5S, would cancel the term limit in an instant, motivating him with the exceptional situation of a crisis caused by Renzi.
Meanwhile, on Facebook, it is Carlo Calenda who takes the side of a new government without Conte: “The best result for Italy from this crazy legislature is a ‘pacifying government’ until the election of the President of the Republic, made up of good managers and administrators. A technical government if the political forces fail to overcome their conflicts. Vaccines and Recovery. The rest counts for zero. “And in an interview with Avvenire, the Minister of the Family Elena Bonetti returns to the attack:” We are constantly committed to avoiding the crisis in the country. For this reason, seek concrete solutions to become builders of a true restart, in the spirit indicated by President Mattarella, and urge everyone to create the conditions so that starting over is really possible. “Italia viva does not read negatively the parliamentary passage announced by Conte, because “the government must always be accountable to Parliament”, but when it comes to a “political synthesis” on the recovery plan “we have to share first. To date, no response has been given. “Iv considers that the resources for health care, starting with the use of the MES, and for schools, are essential points of the Recovery Plan.” Resources for infrastructure and culture. Then the full financing of the Family Law to combat malignancy, which means reforming parental leave and investing to compensate for the delays in women’s work and give young people a future ”. Today, vaccines are “the great challenge. It is not possible to make a final assessment after the first few days, but that is why we ask for a roadmap, to protect as many citizens as possible immediately and quickly. It was not given to us ”. Bonetti understands that “this PNRR, which weighs almost as much as 10 former finance companies, is a date with history. To miss the goals would be a catastrophe for the whole country. It is certainly not us who want to increase debt. If we now choose superficially, we will irreversibly condemn ourselves and our children ”, asks Italia viva,“ a government that does well in the Recovery plan, that knows how to offer a change to families and companies. I hope President Conte will still lead it, but he is the first to give answers. As soon as possible. “If” the conditions to serve the country well no longer existed, “the choice to resign as minister, for Bonetti, would be” the most logical, free and responsible consequence. ”
