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The spread of the infection continues exponentially and relentlessly. With a weekly average of 9,144 confirmed cases per day (compared to 4,169 the previous week) and only 1,766 cured each day, we reached 423,578 and 252,959 in total, respectively. There are 36,616 deaths, of which 411 in the period compared to 203 in the previous one. Therefore, the growth rates are very high compared to the previous week and it should be noted that they are similar to those of the first wave..
Intensive therapy
The acceleration in the evolution of the epidemic highlights criticalities in local services and increases in the occupancy rate of beds in intensive care and medical areas that are at risk, in some regions, of reaching critical values in the next month. In fact, ICU admissions, while remaining below the critical threshold, have increased worryingly: from 09/13, when there were 187, it took 17 days to increase by 50% to 280 on 09/30, then 11 days to increase by 50% to 420 on 10/11, and finally it only took 5 days to reach 638. There are currently 797, of which 113 in Lombardy, 111 in Lazio, 85 in Campania. In fact, we are witnessing a doubling of hospitalizations and intensive care in the last two weeks, if the rise continues at the same rate as in the first half of October, it would lead us to have figures that are difficult to manage at the end of November. To find confirmation, simply apply a duplicate every two weeks to today’s data – the virus can still be contained, but it must be stopped immediately and without delay.
Currently there are 6,529 places available in IT with the goal of reaching 8,732. Sardinia is the first region in which IT hospitalized patients (33) exceed the value reached in the first wave (31 on April 8), thus the percentage of use rises to 21%; followed by Campania (19%), Umbria (15%) and Lazio (14%). The national Rt index is now at 1.20 with a sharp rise. Let us remember that when the value of Rt is less than 1 it means that we are progressing towards the elimination of the disease, if it is greater than 1 it indicates that we are progressing towards an exponential growth in the number of cases.
Therefore, the epidemic curve of the last week has registered a strong and sudden increase: it is reasonable to expect that the figures will continue to grow, because the data that we see today are the children of infections contracted for at least a few days. In particular, we must not make the mistake of correlating new daily cases with hospitalized patients and intensive care. An average of 5 days pass from the moment of infection to the manifestation of the first symptoms, to which must be added the time necessary to obtain the result of the swab (national average at the beginning of October 2 days according to ISS data). New daily cases, therefore, will largely be reflected with new hospitalizations over the next week. For the first time after the end of the shutdown, the ISS Weekly Report expressly speaks of “no longer sustainable workload in local health services”. The risk is not being able to track contacts, allowing uncontrolled transmission chains to form.
For now, the average age of those infected remains stable at 42 years (ISS data updated to October 12): this is good news because it testifies to a limited participation of the age groups most at risk for now. , in particular of those over 70 years of age, who in the last survey represented 11.3% of all new cases.
Positive swab ratio
Let us now observe the relationship between the positives identified and the swabs made: when it is below the 3% threshold it means that a sufficient number of swabs are made and, above all, that the monitoring system in the territory is capable of containing the spread of infection. If this value is exceeded, the exact opposite occurs: insufficient stops and contact trace placed on the strings. In the data for the last few days, we find a positive / buffer ratio of around 10%, widely exceeding the aforementioned limit, and this happened in a few days: on October 5, 3% was exceeded for the first time (3.74%) . Since then, there has been a sharp increase in tests performed, but still well below the number that should be achieved: 250-300,000 per day.
Contagions and regions
There are still disparities between the different Regions; The correct way to understand which ones are really the most affected is to use the value of the new cases detected per 100,000 inhabitants: the data is obtained from those reported daily by the Autonomous Regions and Provinces, the ISS and the Ministry of Health. For the week ending October 17, the national average was 87.8 new cases per 100,000 residents. Below this threshold are: Calabria 21.9; Basilicata 34.1; Puglia 44.3; March 50.4; Sicily 54.9; Sardinia 60.9; Emilia-Romagna 68.0; Friuli 69.4; Molise 71.3; Lazio 72.6; Abruzzo 72.9 and Veneto 81.2.
Lombardy and Bergamo
Above the national average: PA Trento 95.2; Piedmont 109.5; Campania 112.8; Tuscany 114.0; Lombardy 117.3; PA Bolzano 125.8; Umbria 139.0; Liguria 184.5; Aosta Valley 230.7.
As can be seen, Lombardy continues to be one of the most affected regions, also in relation to population (just over 10 million inhabitants), with province of Milan to act as leader both in the incidence of new cases per 100,000 inhabitants (171), and in the percentage of increase in cases. In the region, intensive care is worrying, increasing by 70 units in just 10 days and hospitalizations that in the same period went from 400 to 1,136.
The province of Bergamo, on the other hand, is at the bottom of this ranking with an index of 42 in the first case and + 3.5% in the second.. Those infected, however increasing in the week under review, totaled 16,523 (+ 376), and deaths increased to 3,150 (+2).
The forecasts are for a greater escalation of infections, so, to try to counteract its spread, the Lombardy Region proposed from Thursday the stop of all activities and movements from 23 to 5 hours, as well as the closure of the median and large distribution on Saturday and Sunday.
Blockade of L’Europa ei
Europe has exceeded 250,000 victims of Covid-19, 8,000 only in the last seven days.
In France the average number of daily cases (rounded) is 20,000, in Spain 12,000 inches Britain 10,000, in Germany 6,000 The number of cases triples that of March, exactly in line with the number of swabs that have tripled since then. So we are at a turning point: if the positives continued to increase, we would be worse off than in the first wave.
From the curfew in France, where the virus extinguishes Paris and some large cities (Grenoble, Lille, Lyon, Aix-Marseille, Rouen, Toulouse and Montpellier) between 9:00 p.m. and 6:00 a.m., to the closure of restaurants in Netherlands and pubs in the UK, where not a day goes by without a government scientific adviser suggesting re-establishing a blockade. Meanwhile, London will move to the “high alert” level, the second on the scale of restrictions imposed by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. It will affect nine million people and also provides for the prohibition of meetings at home with friends.
All countries restrict the space to be together, limiting cultural and sports activities or closing gyms. For governments it is a difficult choice, because it will have a negative impact on the economy. However, doing nothing could lead to the reintroduction of national restrictions. Among the countries that have implemented tougher measures to stop nightlife is the Netherlands. The first Minister Mark Rutte he spoke of partial lockdown when he announced the closure of all bars, restaurants and cafes. Even the nightlife capital of the world, Barcelona, is not immune from club crackdown. The measure affects all of Catalonia, while the Community of Madrid is practically sealed because it is the epicenter of the epidemic in Spain. In Belgium, there have been more than 10,000 daily cases, which makes the country one of the most affected of the population (2%); The first partial closures also take place here, with the closure of cafes and restaurants for a month and a curfew from midnight to 5 in the morning.
Infections are also increasing in Eastern Europe. There Czech Republic It is one of the European Union countries with the highest number of infections per inhabitant (1.7%). The numbers are catastrophic, the prime minister said, averaging 8,000 in recent days. Too many for a country of 10 million inhabitants. The army mobilizes to build a new 500-bed field hospital.
Also in Krakow in Poland work is underway to create new hospitals. Along with Warsaw, it is one of the most affected centers. In the next few days there will be 100 new red zones, announced the Minister of Health. In Slovakia the prime minister asked to take the pandemic seriously and not listen to masks. The number of infected people increased by 60 percent in one week.
In the world
Worldwide, official infections have exceeded 40 million, with an increase of 5 million in just two weeks. 1,200,000 deaths. These are the 10 most affected countries: United States 8,154,594 – India 7,550,273 – Brazil 5,224,362 – Russia 1,390,824 – Argentina 989,680 – Colombia 959,572 –Spain 936,560 – France – 876,342 – Peru 865,549 – Mexico – 851,227.
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