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While the contagion curve seems to gradually flatten out – the Health Ministry’s Prevention Director Giovanni Rezza says he is “cautiously optimistic” – South Tyrol is advancing only to try to get out of emergency shutdown. Already at the end of October, President Arno Kompatscher had signed a softer ordinance – in contrast to national provisions – which provided for the opening of bars and restaurants respectively until 8 pm and 10 pm – and then backtracked, even presenting a ban on moving house in early November. But coronavirus cases continued to rise. However, over the past weekend, Kompatscher implemented a massive antigenic swab screening in 350 thousand people, focusing everything on the isolation of the positive. He did so at a cost of about 3.5 million euros, an effort that was rewarded by the high participation, and that, in the end, led him to decide to revoke the emergency shutdown total, as of Monday, November 30.
Attendance record: found 3,185 positive
How did the South Tyrol model work? This is a unique attempt in Italy, which involved a total of 116 municipalities with 184 open points. A very complicated company, as well as expensive, from a logistical point of view. How does a Open Massimo Ribetto, regional representative of Nursing, the nurses union very active also in Bolzano, in addition to the commitment of the health company, other staff from the Red Cross and the White Cross and volunteers from Austria and Veneto were also asked for help. An impressive mobilization, so much so that “among the many people who have given their availability, many employees of the health company have been told that they no longer need them.”
In total, we are talking about 900-1,000 people a day, even on weekends. Their effort was rewarded with extensive participation from the South Tyrolese, which was even higher than the administration’s expectations: approximately 350 thousand citizens (over 5 years old) out of a total of approximately 530 thousand population. The follow-up made it possible to identify 3,185 positive, equal to approximately 0.9% of the participants.
To understand if this strategy has worked, we will have to wait the next few days to see if the virus transmissibility index (Rt) will really fall below the threshold of 1, as expected by Kompatscher, who has already announced the reopening of stores, markets. and businesses, including hairdressers and estheticians, beginning November 30. But will a test suffice? Could it be a replicable model?
Ineffective testing and logistical problems – that’s why it can’t be replicated nationally
The doubts, in truth, are many. First, the tests used are not “lab” swabs, but antigen tests that give a result in about 15 minutes. Very little time. And how Open Dr. Andrea Crisanti, “rapid tests have low sensitivity and out of 10 positives about 3 are lost.” Crisanti’s trial, which in Veneto had proposed a mass detection strategy, is lapidary: “Within two weeks, the cases will be restarted. The South Tyrol model is not a model, it is a patch ”.
Even if it were taken for granted that “one put on screen with a rapid test done only once in a limited population, it can temporarily reduce the prevalence of the virus, it could not detect all the positives, “he adds. Ultimately, beyond the use of antigen tests instead of swabs, the tests must be repeated at least 2 or 3 times, accompanied by new emergency shutdown. In other words, the opposite of what South Tyrol intends to do.
Beyond this, explains Crisanti, who was the first to insist on the need to trace as much as possible, it would be difficult to apply on a national scale even without logistical and financial obstacles. “In macro-realities, quick tests performed without repeating them at regular intervals are meaningless. The correct way is the one used in Liverpool: test the whole city once a week for about 4-5 weeks. Are there alternatives? “The network test – says the researcher – Once a positive person has been identified, a molecular swab is done, not a quick swab, to all contacts, friends and co-workers. We have proposed it several times. It would be a much cheaper and smarter strategy.
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