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Fears have arisen of an acceleration of contagion. And now, according to experts from the Higher Institute of Health, Italy is moving towards it scenario 4: The most serious. The one for which a total lock must be evaluated.
In particular alarm is high for 5 regions – Lombardy, Campania, Liguria, Lazio and Valle d’Aosta – and for the autonomous province of Bolzano. Special surveillance in Milan. There are three weeks, if the contagion does not decrease, the most drastic measure will have to be evaluated. This was confirmed by the study delivered to the government which, in order to assess the risks in the population and the impact on health facilities, describes situations and possible remedies.
I study
After the controversy, the numbers count. In particular the RT, the contagion index. The study says: ‘In this scenario, regional Rt values are predominantly and significantly greater than 1.5 (ie, with estimates of the 95% confidence interval of Rt greater than 1.5). A scenario of this type could quickly lead to a high number of cases and clear signs of overload of care services, without the possibility of tracing the origin of new cases. This could lead to “an overload of welfare services in 1-1.5 months, unless the epidemic spreads mainly among the very young, as observed in July / August 2020, and the most fragile categories such as People greater”.
But, adds the ISS, “it seems quite unlikely to be able to protect the most fragile categories in the presence of an epidemic characterized by these transmissibility values”. And he explains: “In a national scenario of this type, it is presumed that many regions are classified as high risk and, given the speed of diffusion and the interconnection between the different regions, it is unlikely that there will be situations of less than moderate risk.” And finally: “If the high-risk situation persists for a period of more than three weeks, it is most likely that very aggressive containment measures will be necessary.”
Who risks
The extraordinary commissioner for the Covid emergency, Domenico Arcuri, confirmed that “the growth of the infection has never been so impetuous. The positives are eight times more than three weeks ago. With these figures, no health system, and much less the Italian one, will be able to hold out, “he warned at a press conference, noting how the Regions” could implement hospital strengthening plans from May. ”
Among those most at risk of blockade is Campania, which for the first time exceeds 3,000 new infected in one day, with Naples having 603. But Lombardy is also approaching the critical threshold: yesterday it registered 7,339 new positives, another 53 intensive care hospitalizations and 57 deaths. And above all Milan is the center of attention. The microbiologist Andrea Crisanti said yesterday “I would have done the confinement in Milan 10 days ago.” He also criticizes the situation in Bolzano, Liguria and Lazio. South Tyrol leaves the line soft: bars and restaurants (which had been open at night) will close at 6pm.
October 30, 2020 (change October 30, 2020 | 06:53)
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