China recovers from Covid: with + 4.9% in the third quarter, GDP is already back in positive territory

MILAN – Absent from the radar of the second wave of Covid infections, China is already celebrating the end of the crisis also from an economic point of view. The data on the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter, although slightly below expectations, certify a strong rebound and allow Beijing to take the GDP balance to positive in the January-September balance. This confirms the outlook indicated by the International Monetary Fund, which sees China as the only country in growth in 2020 with + 1.9% estimated a few days ago.

We get to the data, then. China’s economy lengthens its rhythm and in the third quarter of 2020 marks an annual GDP growth of 4.9%, higher than the 3.2% of the previous three months. This is a result slightly lower than the 5.2% expected by analysts, but it is science fiction for other countries. However, the growth rate registered in the third quarter is still far from the level reached in 2019 (+ 6.1%), which was already a minimum for three decades. According to data published by the National Statistical Office, the Chinese economy marks cyclically (that is, compared to the previous quarter, the second) an expansion of 2.7%, less than the previous 11.5% and 3 , 2% estimated on the eve.

With this flicker, the Chinese GDP in January-September turns positive and marks a rise of 0.7%: after the historic fall to -6.8% in January-March, the economy has recovered its expansionary phase, increasing by 3 , 2% in April-June and, in fact, 4.9% in July-September. As mentioned, China is the only country indicated by the IMF to grow in 2020, at more than 1.9% according to estimates published in October. Central Bank Governor Yi Gang expects 2% growth in 2020.

GDP is not the only sign of the strength of the Asian economy. In fact, other clues come from the confirmation of the strong recovery in industrial production. with a new jump in September that registered an annual + 6.9%, exceeding the estimates of analysts and the + 5.6% reached in August. The data released by the National Statistics Office represents the sixth consecutive monthly increase in growth and allows the Chinese economy to take the trend of industrial production to a positive trend at the end of the third quarter since the beginning of 2020, after the blocks of the First. months linked to the pandemic: + 1.2% in the first nine months ‘cancels’ the -1.3% at the end of June. In the first nine months, high-tech manufacturing and machinery manufacturing grew by 5.9 and 4.7%, respectively.

Obviously, the whole area benefits. Take for example the Japan: Japanese exports fell 4.9% year-on-year in September, better than the nearly -15% drop reported in August, but worse than estimated, with analysts forecasting a contained drop of -2.6% every year. But it is enough to look at the geography of the flows to understand how fundamental Beijing is: exports to China have grown 14% annually; those of the United States 0.7%, while those of the EU fell 10.6%.