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Nando Pagnoncelli in the Corriere della Sera makes his usual poll, but this time a few hours from the Regionals and simulating the electoral laws that are currently being discussed. Result: with any electoral law now on the table, the center-right would always win. In addition, the voting intentions verified on September 24 give the League a small increase, to 24%, to 16.7%, to Meloni a little down, but above all a slight decrease, to 19.3%, to the Pd, which may be the case of stopping the hosannas of the post Regionali. The five stars would be at a not inconsiderable 18.6%, taking into account today’s inner moonlight.
Pagnoncelli emphasizes:
“The results of the polls do not seem to have had a very significant impact on public opinion: the administrative offices in fact had a strong local connotation and in four out of six regions, voters rewarded the outgoing presidents who distinguished themselves in the most difficult stage lived from the postwar country onwards. National politics seems to have been in the background. The net result of the referendum, then, does not seem to have particularly rewarded the M5S, which is the political force that has fought more than others for the cut of parliamentarians ”.
On the other hand, what Pagnoncelli points out, and it is the main novelty, is that there is no pro-majority electoral law, as has been done many times in the past, and above all the simulation takes into account the reduction of parliamentarians in the Camera. In short, with the current law, the Rosatellum, simulating larger coalitions of the center-left or only limited to Pd and M6s, with the 5% barrier or with the 3% threshold of any Germanicum, of which we speak, the center -Right would always win and with a solid majority, taking into account current voting intentions.
Pagnoncelli writes:
“Even with the approximations of the case, the first scenario attributes the majority of the Chamber to the center-right with 227 seats (more than half of which would go to the League), compared to the 114 estimated for the center-left and the 55 for the M5S. In the Senate, the center-right would get 112 elected against the 57 of the center-left and 27 of the M5. In the hypothesis of a Giallorossi coalition, the advantage of the center-right is confirmed: 218 to 161 in the House and 112 to 80 in the Senate. If the electoral law were changed by adopting the so-called Germanicum, the majority would be lost and seats would be allocated with a proportional method and a threshold of 3% or, alternatively, 5% at the national level (or 15% in a region), recognizing the so-called right of the rostrum to those who do not exceed the threshold, but obtain the complete quotient in at least three districts of two different regions ”.
With the barriers, the scenario would not change: effectively the highest, 5% would see the disappearance of Italy alive, the never entry into Parliament of Calenda’s party and the parliamentary evaporation of Leu and the Italian left
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