Calabria, Puglia and Sardinia at high risk

Published on: 04/12/2020 3:42 PM

Three regions are “classified as high risk” for Sars-Cov-2 transmission: Calabria, Puglia and Sardinia, the latter as a “precautionary measure, as the integrity” of the data cannot be reliably assessed. This is what emerges from the Report of the Higher Institute of Health-Ministry of Health with the weekly monitoring of the Covid epidemic, in the draft that Adnkronos Health has. The high risk classification “for 3 or more consecutive weeks – we read – foresees the adoption of specific measures at the provincial and regional level.”

“The mean Rt calculated in symptomatic cases is equal to 0.91”, we read. “We found punctual Rt values ​​lower than 1 in 16 autonomous regions and provinces – the document continues – Of these, 15 have a punctual Rt lower than one even in their highest confidence interval, which indicates a significant decrease in transmissibility” .

In the last week of November and the beginning of December “a generalized reduction in global risk is observed, with the majority of the Regions and autonomous provinces at moderate risk and for the first time, after seven weeks, two at low risk”, Basilicata and Campania.

In particular, 16 regions are classified as having a moderate risk of Sars-Cov-2 transmission. Of these, 5 have a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next month if the current transmissibility remains unchanged: Emilia Romagna, Marche, Molise, Autonomous Province of Trento, Veneto. In these regions, “it is suggested to carefully evaluate the convenience of adopting mitigation measures, also at the subregional level, planned for the level of risk itself.”

“The incidence is still too high to allow sustainable management, so it is necessary to reach levels of transmissibility significantly lower than 1 throughout the national territory, allowing a greater decrease in the number of new cases of contagion and, consequently, a reduction of pressure on local health services and hospitals ”, highlights the document.

The occupancy rate of ICU beds “still exceeds the critical occupancy threshold at the national level. Overall, the number of people admitted to the ICU has dropped from 3,816 (November 24) to 3,663 (December 1). While the number of people hospitalized in medical areas went from 34,577 to 32,811 ”.