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Antonio Masiello via Getty Images
The problem is not the yes, but the how and when. The government is fully on track for a new round of restrictions to stem the tide of infections. Today 31,084, in five days, starting on Monday, almost 122,000, for a trend that continues to rise and does not see signs of investment, with the prospect of reaching double next Friday. That is why the government no longer thinks about proceeding or not with another repression, but about how to do it.
There are three open roads in front of Giuseppe Conte. The first involves blocking, probably not quite as tetragonal as last spring, but we are close to it. The measures are those contemplated by the fourth scenario of the study of the Higher Institute of Health: closure of schools, new limitations if not closure of bars and restaurants, closure of other categories of commercial activities, possible limits to regional mobility, limitation of social contacts . The second is a massive intervention to determine the local red zones, at the municipal, provincial and regional levels in extreme ratio. Restricted areas to which a device of lockdown rules could be applied, from which one could not leave except for proven needs. The third involves a mixture of the first two: a narrower, but smoother, across the country combined with the creation of territorial red zones.
In government the situation is underway. Conte was forced to convene a summit with the heads of delegation and Lucía Azzolina dedicated to schools. As long as the Minister of Education, supported by the Movimento 5 stelle and by Italia viva, would defy without hesitation the more restrictive regional ordinances on classes placed in distance education and does not want to hear about a nationwide stop, for the Democratic Party and For Roberto Speranza, the bar has already been exceeded and, on the contrary, the governors of the regions with the highest risk must be encouraged to act in that direction.
It is only one of the pieces that make up the puzzle of a very intricate situation, into which the problems of a quarrelsome and frayed majority are grafted. Conte takes time, it gets stronger for a number of reasons. The first is that the effects of the last dpcm have not yet had an impact on the contagion curve. “It takes at least ten days,” explains a source who works on the dossier, and therefore a slowdown in growth will not be seen before next Wednesday or Thursday. “But at that time it will be too late, we will be totally out of control,” objected the Ministry of Health, which has always led the criminal wing of the executive, which is promoting a series of even tougher measures starting next week. The second piece of information that comforts the prime minister’s expectation is that regarding the nature of the infections: 1740 out of a potential 10,300 intensive care units are currently used, around 80% of cases are asymptomatic, 94% are managed from the home. Of course, some areas of the country (Lombardy, Piedmont, Campania, Lazio) are suffering more than others, but there is scope to see the possible effects of the last dpcm, in the opinion of a part of the executive.
In fact, the government is preparing for difficult months. Conte met today with union leaders, ensuring the extension of the block of layoffs until March. On the other hand, he promised companies that an additional four billion will be allocated so that the State, and not the companies, pay for the layoffs.
The image is evolving rapidly. Just on October 12, Commissioner Domenico Arcuri assured: “The situation is not dramatic.” Twelve days later, the world had turned upside down: “We are in a somewhat dramatic moment”, to explain the new measures. And probably the next ones: next week will bring a new grip, it will change the way we live again. It only remains to understand how and when.
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