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We are in the middle of the second wave and the third is already around the corner, at least according to several experts and scientists. This haunting new scenario was charted by Andrea Crisanti, Professor of Microbiology at the University of Padua during transmission Agora, on Rai 3.
“The real goal we should have now is to implement measures to avoid the third wave – said Crisanti -. If we now make a emergency shutdown extremely rigid for 6-7 weeks, then around Christmas the cases will have decreased and there will be a thousand pressures to remove the measures, because everyone wants to go on vacation, go out for lunch or look for friends outside the region, and in February we will be back in this situation. The real challenge right now is to find a strategy to avoid the third wave. “
The danger of a third wave of coronavirus in February
No restart, Crisanti stressed, “is effective if we do not have a plan to prevent cases from regressing again and consolidate the results we obtain. Any restriction measure will take effect sooner or later, but it cannot continue like this for months and months.” . The political agenda must be to prepare a national plan to consolidate the results of these new restrictive measures, otherwise we will be in this situation again in February, unless we have the miracle of a vaccine distributed to everyone in the first months. of the year. Which, objectively, I don’t think is possible. “
“Measures must be taken to avoid the third wave. Even if we had a national closure today, then at Christmas everything would reopen: and in February we would find ourselves in an emergency. No restart goes into effect if we don’t have a political plan. “
Andrea Crisanti #now pic.twitter.com/zarQ8gkW03– Agora (@agorarai) November 3, 2020
“There are a thousand places left in intensive care, they will be filled in 10 days”
Crisanti, however, points out that to date there are less than a thousand places in intensive care. Although yesterday the growth of the virus marked a slight slowdown, the situation in hospitals is critical: “If this continues in ten days there will be no more intensive care places.” On yesterday’s decrease in Covid cases, or 22 thousand, Crisanti comments: “If yesterday 200 thousand swabs had been made, like the average of last week, we would be around 34 thousand infections. That means that we have a very slow slowdown. slight in growth but we are always facing very important figures with a growing number of people going to resuscitation. “
Luca Richeldi and the second wave of coronavirus
The professor from Padua is not the only one who speaks of the danger of one second wave of coronavirus in Italy. The alarm was also raised by Luca richeldi, Director of the Pulmonology Unit of the Gemelli Irccs Polyclinic in Rome and member of the scientific-technical committee. “If the numbers are unmanageable, then we must think of more decisive measures at the national level, not a blockade like the one in March, but a sustainable intervention in the medium term because the winter is long and it cannot be ruled out that there will also be a third.” Wave of Covid – he said in an interview with Sole24Ore -. The figures are as worrying as those seen in other European countries, but we can still try to manage the impact by trying to lower the pressure on hospitals.
Lockdown then relaxation: possible new peak in February-March
The danger is that with a blockage of a few weeks from now and a consequent relaxation of the measures during the Christmas period, there is a risk of a new peak of infections in the months of February and March. “We cannot rule it out because we have the whole winter ahead of us while in March we were close to summer. For this reason, in order not to find ourselves facing a third wave in two or three months, we must carry out calibrated and proportionate interventions that are sustainable in the medium term “, says Richeldi.
The third wave is already a reality in the United States
Looking abroad, the United States is already witnessing the third wave of infections from the coronavirus pandemic. According to New York TimesIn states like Ohio and North Dakota, health authorities are receiving far more hospitalizations than at any other time during the pandemic. Since last Monday, in sixteen states the increase in cases registered compared to the previous week was the highest in the weekly comparisons since last March. This new wave is not yet causing an increase in deaths, which, according to the American newspaper, is also due to a better ability to track infections than in recent months.
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But it is on the extent of the pandemic itself that the new data comes from the CDC, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. According to one Cdc study, in the United States so far there have been at least 300 thousand deaths compared to the trend in previous years. According to experts, Covid-19 has affected the increase in unrecorded deaths among those linked to the coronavirus. Among the emblematic cases would be that of heart attack victims, forced to avoid hospitals flooded with Covid patients. Of the roughly 100,000 more deaths reported by the CDC, 95% concern seniors between the ages of 75 and 84, about 21% more than the US annual average. However, the largest anomalous increase in deaths refers to people between the ages of 25 and 44, of whom 26.5% more died.
The new Dpcm today November 3 and the regions towards the total blockade
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