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The first data to emerge from today’s newsletter is the drop in swabs processed: only 103,584, the lowest number since last October 19. Consequently, the cases of coronavirus registered in the last 24 hours also decrease: only 12,030, compared to 17,938 yesterday when, however, around 50 thousand more swabs were analyzed. Comparing with the bulletin of last Monday, it is observed that the number of cases is comparable after all (12,030 against 13,720) compared to about 10,000 less tests. Ultimately, we don’t see this big improvement on the curve. However, it has already registered a significant slowdown already at the end of November. Since the peak of 40,000 cases, we have moved to a much more manageable situation. The fear of many experts, even judging by the latest data, is that the slowdown has stopped or, in any case, is very slow.
As he points out Lorenzo ruffino On Twitter, if we take the cases registered in the last 4 Mondays, the average variation is -40% while the swabs have decreased by 24.
- This week: 12,030
- last week: 13,720
- two weeks ago: 16,377
- three weeks ago: 22,930
- four weeks ago: 27,354
Monday’s Cases
– this week: 12,030
– last week: 13720
– two weeks ago: 16,377
– three weeks ago: 22,930
– four weeks ago: 27,354Change from the average of the last four weeks
– almost: -40%
– buffers: -24%.– Lorenzo Ruffino (@Ruffino_Lorenzo) December 14, 2020
In short, even if the current number of cases appears to be declining, the situation is far from rosy. Also because other indicators are not so positive. In fact, hospitalizations in medical departments are growing again, although only by 30 units. The balance between admissions and discharges in intensive care units was reduced (-63), as was the number of admissions: 138 in the last 24 hours, compared to 152 yesterday and 195 on Saturday. But as always, caution is needed.
- December 14, 138
- December 13, 152
- December 12, 195
- December 11, 208
- December 10, 251
- December 9, 152
- December 8, 192
- December 7, 144
- December 6, 150
- December 5, 192
- December 4, 201
- December 32
If we look at the data available from December 3 to today, it does not appear that there has been such a steep decline. Also, don’t forget that notification delays are always possible, especially around the weekend. Therefore, the trend must be evaluated over a longer period of time.
As the mathematician John also points out Sebastiani, of the National Research Council (Cnr-Iac) “for about ten days the analysis of the daily variation of admissions to intensive care units and admissions to the same type of wards indicates a constant”, where the number of deaths “has begun to descend “.
As for the victims (491 in the last 24 hours), the drop is quite evident if we compare today’s figures with those of 2-3 weeks ago.
- this week: 491
- last week: 528
- two weeks ago: 672
- three weeks ago: 630
- four weeks ago: 504
The following graph is quite indicative in this regard. After all, as virologists had widely predicted, the death curve follows the other curves approximately two weeks behind.
Another indicator that does not bode well is the one related to the positivity rate of tampons, which is now substantially stable since last November 25. This means that, despite the decrease in cases, our ability to follow up has not improved much.
As they point out on the authorized Facebook page Predicting is better than cure, “the decline in the curve for new normalized daily infections is becoming less steep (lower graph, ed), almost flat and we are still a long way from the plateau with the famous +1 infection”.
“Meanwhile – read the post again -, as of today, we have 16 regions in the yellow zone and no regions in the red zone, with a national index Rt = 0.94 (therefore, very close to the threshold of epidemic re-expansion) “. The hospitalization and intensive care curves, on the other hand, “maintain a downward trend although slower than in the first wave.” What is going to happen? During the next 10-14 days “we will maintain these trends for all curves and then we will begin to see the ‘negative’ effects of this relaxation of the measures: the daily contagion curve will have a slight upward trend that will then be reflected in the other curves We estimate that we did another 14,600 deaths several days ago, between now and mid-January, it is still a reality. ”
Coronavirus: Towards a new grip on Christmas 2020
Meanwhile, after the reunion scenes seen over the weekend, the government has decided to run for cover. This morning it took place A summit between Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, the heads of delegation of the majority forces, some members of the CTS and several ministers. A meeting was called to discuss a possible new tightening in light of the Christmas season. The CTS is studying three scenarios: take Italy to the red or orange zone for eight days from December 24 to January 1, or on holidays and days before holidays (December 24-27, December 31 – December 2). January and from January 5 to 7). January), or directly from December 24 to January 7.
Doctors and virologists believe that a resurgence of the epidemic in January is highly likely, if not taken for granted. “New ‘anti-Covid’ restrictions will need to be placed at this point,” he told AdnKronos. Fabrizio Pregliasco. The virologist described as “worrying” the crowds that flooded the streets and shops of many cities. “Not good,” said the white coat. It is really essential to have to push a bit, otherwise in 15 days we will find heavy effects “. What we saw in Milan on the first day of the yellow zone “was an excess,” said Pregliasco. “It is true that no one has done anything illegal”, considering that the reopening occurred, “but like this, all together passionately” crowded “, it is not right. And if there is no responsibility for everyone, it ends up having to arrive.
For Matteo Bassetti, director of the Infectious Diseases Clinic of the San Martino hospital in Genoa, there will be an almost physiological recovery, already in late December and early January. The problem – said the infectious diseases specialist to ‘Un Giorno da Pecora’, on Rai Radio1, is that we are talking about the third wave and the second wave is not over yet, which will end when it reaches below 1% of positives “.
Contacted by AdnKronos Salute, the infectious disease specialist explained that “yesterday there was indeed a large influx of people in the city centers to go shopping, but from what I could see, they were all outdoors and people wore masks. “In short, “I don’t think we can say that Italians they did something bad Going out and shopping is allowed by the colors of the Regions “. As for the possibility of a new squeeze, for the infectious disease specialist” spending Christmas and the Saint Stephen at home armored is useless. Instead, it takes more awareness on everyone’s part to understand that careless attitudes can bring back infections. And then let’s stop looking at what others are doing, as happened with France. We now have our eyes on Germany, but each has its own epidemiological situation. I remember the Germans brought 20,000 people to the stadium in September. “
Coronavirus: today’s newsletter Monday, December 14, 2020
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