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7,332 new coronavirus infections. Do not stick to this number or this record, certified by the Bulletin released today, Wednesday, October 14 by the Ministry of Health, because it will probably be exceeded in a few days, if not tomorrow. A certainty, this, linked to very high number of swabs performed -152,196, this is also a record- that will continue to grow in the coming days, but also due to the fact that the effects of the new restrictions imposed by the last Dpcm government will be seen in ten days. Until then, nothing can stop the contagion. And the more infected there are, the more infected there will be. Mathematical.
There are, then, other data to which we must turn. Ask ourselves, first, if we should start stocking up on yeast and soft feathers in view of a new lock. The answer here is no: crowding in front of supermarkets to stock up on basic necessities can easily be dispensed with, because we are still a long way from the moment when it will be necessary to close the country twice.
First reason: because the infection rate is the only data that recalls the hardest days. It is true, to find 7332 cases you have to go back to March 21, completely blocked. But we had last counted more than 5086 hospitalized on June 4, 2037 cured in 9, 44 deaths in 14. To reach the record of deaths – 996 in a single day, it was March 27 – we would have to multiply by 22 times the current death toll. To reach the record for admissions – 29,010 on April 4 – we would have to multiply the number of hospitalized today by almost 6 times. To reach the record for people in intensive care – 4,068, on April 3 – we would have to multiply those of today by 8.
This does not mean that we should be (too) calm, because the trend of infections is growing exponentially, with cases that have doubled in the space of just one week. But it is also true that a good part of these infections, for now, concern people who are not hospitalized, but rather isolation at home. And it is no coincidence that, like infections, even people in isolation (86,846) set an absolute record, doubled in the space of two weeks, where hospitalized patients, intensive care and deaths double the rate, which is now four times slower.
Will they grow? Unfortunately, it is possible. The graph, brutal in its effectiveness, posted on Twitter by Matteo Villa dell’Ispi, shows that in the last ten days we have had a seven-fold increase in intensive care hospitalizations that has entered the top 40 of this special ranking. However, even in this case, we feel empowered not to panic: the threshold at which intensive care will enter under stress is very far and the many swabs performed suggest that few late diagnoses contributed to the massive death rate last spring. Likewise, we hope that the measures that have just been put in place, along with an increase in smart work and the closure of some small territorial outbreaks, will help to further slow the spread of the pandemic.
The hope, of course, is that to all this is added greater growth in tampons and infection tracking, that hospitals continue to provide new intensive care places and that everyone, with civic sense and responsibility, will do their part. So don’t worry, but not too much: saying the lockdown is still far enough just means we still have a lot of time to avoid it. The only rule is not to waste it, after all.
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