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Like yesterday more than yesterday. Today’s bulletin, Thursday, October 15, issued by the Ministry of Health reports that 8,804 cases have been registered in the last 24 hours (yesterday they were +7332), raising the total since the beginning of the emergency to 381,602. The healed are 245,964 (+1,899 in the last 24 hours, yesterday they were +2037) and the dead are 36,372 (+83, yesterday they were 43). In our country there are currently 99,266 positive cases: of these, 5,796 patients are hospitalized with symptoms, while 586 are in intensive care. The Region with the most positive cases in the last 24 hours is Lombardy, which registers a boom in new infections (+2000), followed by Campania, Piedmont. Overall, the swabs performed in the last 24 hours were 162,932, for a total of 13,077827 since the start of the epidemic.
“It seems that the epidemic has gotten out of hand. We are on the same path as other European countries and we know the problems they are having ”. Giovanni Forti, 26, is a student of Economics at the University of Pisa and at the Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna. Since 2018 he has been part of the editorial team of YouTrend, where he deals with the editorial part, data analysis and data visualization production and in YouTrend he has written several articles on the Covid-19 pandemic: “The fact that we arrived with so many weeks delays show that it was not inevitable to return to these levels – explains Forti to Fanpage.it -. What deceived us was the loosening of that attention that has kept us so low for so long “.
So is it all the care’s fault?
No. There are three settling factors. The beginning of schools, first. Then back to work, with the relative movements. And finally the sudden cold that led us all to spend more time indoors. The combination of these three factors has inevitably caused infections to grow.
Are they growing exponentially?
Right now. Yes. In the last four, five days there has been a trend of doubling cases compared to the previous week. It won’t last forever, of course. It will soon become linear growth. It is up to us when it happens and how much the curve flattens out. What the curves of the United Kingdom, Spain and France tell us tell us that the number at some point becomes constant between 10 thousand and 25 thousand cases. Further, at least, it does not go.
Are these blocking numbers?
The fact that we have managed to manage cases better forces us not to look only at the growth of infections, as in the first wave. Back then, in the spring, all the numbers told the same story. Today the data of absolute infections tell us an alarming story, those of intensive care, serious as they are, a little less.
How does the UCI data grow?
They are growing a lot, and today we had 47 more hospitalizations than yesterday, almost 10% one day with another. It is a significant increase, but compared to the more than four thousand inmates of the first wave, net of which in many regions could not be served, we are in another movie. If the growth continues to 50 inpatients per day, we don’t have many days available.
Especially in some regions …
Exact. In a small region, 150 ICU patients are an emergency in various regions. The most worrying situation regarding intensive care today is Sardinia. Then there are 326 patients hospitalized in additional intensive care. The alarm is less, of course, but it forces some hospitals to create Covid departments, to overload the workload of health personnel, to put under stress those involved in the treatment of other diseases.
Let’s go back to infections: which are the provinces of most concern?
Let’s start with a general consideration. The provinces of large cities have very worrying figures. Milan has more than a thousand cases today alone, as well as yesterday. Then there is Naples which has more than 750, Turin and Rome around 500. It did not happen in the first phase of the epidemic, it is happening now. It must also be said that they are the cities with the highest density of hospital beds, but it is necessary to understand how much Rome and Naples are prepared to face the emergency.
Is growth primarily about them?
It is still very widespread, like last week. All regions have a very high number of infections. Compared to the first wave, the growth homogeneity is much higher. Paradoxically, a general blockade today would make more sense than it did six months ago. Speaking of partial blocks: last week, De Luca announced a blockade of more than a thousand cases. Here, today Campania has more than a thousand cases.
Even today tampon record, like yesterday …
More than 160,000 today, an average of 125,000 per week, almost a million per week. Of these, just over 60% are diagnostic swabs, which are used to test for positivity. That said, the bad news is that the positivity rate in these diagnostic swabs is very high and growing: out of 100 diagnostic swabs, 8 are positive and in various regions it is over 10%. In Liguria it reaches 17%, in Valle d’Aosta 22%.
What does this data mean?
That we are starting to lose track of so many sick people, because the higher this rate, the more it means that there are so many other positive people that we cannot assess. Perhaps that is why we reduced the certification of cure from two to one swab in the last Dpcm. Because we desperately need diagnostic swabs.
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