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“We need to close the country now. With a total, national and generalized confinement. Lower the contagion curve, getting closer to the possibility of an anti-Covid vaccine in better conditions. It is the most rational option to prepare, hopefully, for a mass vaccination in better conditions from the point of view of the epidemic ”. This is what Silvestro Scotti, National Secretary for General Practitioners (Fimmg), told Adnkronos. which defines a new confinement as “the most reasonable option” given the epidemiological situation of the country.
A new national blockade as of November 15? The government takes time
Scotti’s is only the last position of the representatives of the white coats who for days have been asking for compact (or almost) more rigid measures to contain the epidemic. From the hypothesis of a new national blockade after November 15 They talked today several newspapers. The “Corriere della Sera” writes, for example, that if within half a month the epidemiological data do not indicate a change, the possibility of a new lockout is far from remote. Along the same lines, “La Stampa” that tells how the most probable hypothesis is to let all the Regions enter the red zone if within five days there are no signs of a significant slowdown in infections.
According to anonymous sources from the Democratic Party tell Ansa, the hypothesis that a generalized national bloc can be decided on November 15 is not on the government table. “At the moment there is no such hypothesis,” says one prime minister, while another minister says the executive hopes to assess data on infections also in light of the first positive signs of a slowdown in the RT index. However, no official denial has emerged from the government. And it is significant if we think that no more than a month ago Prime Minister Conte repeated that he did not want to hear about a new general shutdown.
Today things have changed dramatically. So much so that as sources from the Democratic government point out, it is the same system of the Dpcm that provides the automatic mechanisms that trigger the regional red zones. In other words: if the data got worse, it would automatically reach a near general tightening, without even the need for a new Dpcm. Hypotheses, for now they are just hypotheses.
A new generalized blockade in Italy? What the numbers say
The only certainty are the numbers, and those, sadly, are not positive. The last bulletin registered 35,098 infected
and 580 deaths with 122 additional ICU patients. According to the president of the ISS Silvio Brusaferro Italy is in a “high risk situation with the need for mitigation measures, that is, social measures to curb the virus.” Also because, he explained today at a press conference, “the hospitalization curve is very steep, it is growing rapidly, and also the employment percentages are rapidly approaching critical thresholds, even for intensive care” which in fact in some regions “is already overcome “. Brusaffero affirmed among other things that from his point of view it would be “opportune to anticipate the most restrictive measures” in 4 regions that are heading towards a high risk.
And it is true, as the Democratic sources point out, that the Rt index, which rose to 1.7, is growing more slowly, but as Brusaferro himself pointed out, we are not in a phase of “viral regression” that occurs only with the contagion index. falls below 1 nationally. And that threshold still seems too far away.
Sileri and the hypothesis of total blockade: “If infections increase, we must close”
That is why there are also those in the government who, with more caution, do not exclude much more severe measures at all. The Deputy Minister of Health, Pierpaolo Sileri, has confirmed in fact that the date of November 15 will be decisive. “Future options depend on the effects of current measures. Continuous monitoring allows us to see if the virus is out of control,” he explained to Rainews 24-. There is a growing number of outbreaks whose origin is not identified because the data from the Regions arrive late. It does not only concern Campania “.” I expect there to be a flattening of the epidemic curve for November 15th. If this does not happen, we will proceed with more red areas. “But Sileri did not even rule out the worst hypothesis, that of the confinement:” In case of an increase in infections, it is necessary to close before reaching extreme suffering for the health structures. ” Words that somehow contradict those uttered anonymously by other members of the government.
Also for the Undersecretariat of Health Sandra Zampa “We are all aware that if the trend does not change, no health service in the world could endure. If everything turns out to be ineffective, no one will wait until the end. You have to fight with a fundamental element that is time and nobody will be late, much less Minister Speranza. ” In short, all hypotheses are on the table. Including the worst, however, government officials seem to have a hard time naming.
Doctors: “We ask for more drastic measures”
From emergency shutdown The white coats, on the other hand, speak openly, those doctors who today are “in the trenches” trying to stop the virus, but who more than anything fear being overwhelmed. “If Italy wakes up more red and orange tomorrow,” our concern has been recognized in part by the government, “the president of the Federation of Medical Orders (Fnomceo), Filippo Anelli, who in recent days has repeatedly asked for, tells Adnkronos Salute emergency shutdown in the country to give encouragement to health services and doctors and nurses in distress. “Ours is the vision of those who live in a situation of extreme difficulty every day to try to guarantee care for all patients, covid and not,” underlines Anelli. “We strongly demand more drastic measures, because arriving at the end of December, that is, in the middle of the flu season, with these figures would pose enormous problems.” “I understand that the government must also take into account” other aspects, such as “the economic one, but I consider it appropriate that we express our concerns.”
Also for Carlo Palermo, Anaao Assomed’s national secretary, the time has come to close: “We are in a long delay and we can no longer witness this rebound of responsibility between the Regions and the government.” The risk, if we continue with this trend, is to return to the difficult situation of having to decide who to intubate and who not, in fact going back to war medicine ”. The Gimbe Foundation, the Association of Hospital Resuscitators (Aaroi) and regional nursing organizations are also appealing to the government. The chorus is unanimous: close before it’s too late.
Palù: “A new confinement? If there is no way to reverse the trend … “
“The Emergency shutdown? These are not decisions that belong to those who deal with the biology of the virus and the clinical impact ”, says Giorgio Palù, emeritus professor at the University of Padua, to“ L’Aria che Tira ”. “The medical order will have taken into account the average resuscitation occupation, we have exceeded 30% and the field doctors are already forced to make painful decisions.”
Palù focuses on the overcrowding of intensive care. “This is what led to a call for a new blockade, even if some regions like Veneto are not in critical condition, the saturation of resuscitations is 17%.” “The saturation of intensive care is the main indicator,” added the teacher, “I think we have 10,000 respirators but not 10,000 beds. We have increased them, but certainly not in the South. We know everything that a confinement would put us on the ground. from an economic point of view, but if there is no way to reverse the trend… ”.
