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In the next few hours some Italian regions will probably pass from yellow zone to orange or red zone and this will mean more restrictions. Could be Liguria, Abruzzo, Umbria, Campania and perhaps Emilia Romagna. Sicily and Puglia are already orange zones and Lombardy, Piedmont, Calabria, Valle d’Aosta and Alto Adige are already red zones. Except for surprises, Friuli, Tuscany, Marche, Molise, Basilicata, Sardinia, Veneto and the Lazio. The scientific consultant to the Minister of Health, Walter Ricciardi, also raised the problem of large metropolitan areas, where, according to him, the closure should be decreed immediately and referred above all to the situations of Naples, Milan, Genoa and Turin. Also in this case, for the moment, Rome is excluded.
Lazio’s numbers: why they won’t go to the orange zone for now
In the next few hours, the updates of the 21 indicators that automatically classify the regions according to risk areas (yellow, orange and red) will be published. The latest data reported by the Regions and processed by the experts of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, it should be remembered, are those of the last week of October. We already know that the Rt index (the virus transmissibility index) in Lazio is currently 1.3 (data communicated yesterday by Councilor D’Amato). This prefigures a Type 3 scenario, to use ISS terminology, which occurs when the regional RT is consistently between 1.25 and 1.50. Scenario 4 occurs when the Rt is greater than 1.50. In the last survey to which the tables used by the ISS refer to the classification of areas, the Rt of Lazio was higher, with 1.43.
In addition, the other indicators of the Region administered by Nicola Zingaretti are good compared to those of many other Italian regions: Lazio makes a lot of swabs, has a good monitoring capacity, the health system at the moment is maintained and well organized, the number of personnel involved in contact tracing is adequate and data is provided promptly. There is one indicator, among all of them, that is reported as risk: the relationship between positive cases and tests performed. This is because, although Lazio is generally one of the regions with a lower ratio between proven cases and positive cases, around 9/10 percent, in the indicator examined by the ISS, only the swabs performed under normal conditions and not preventive screening (ie swabs performed in mass screening in schools, for example, are not calculated). In any case, we reiterate, Lazio continues to be one of the regions with the lowest ratio between tests and positive cases.
The worrying thing is the increase in hospitalizations: oh, if the growth does not stop
What is worrying, however, is another fact, which does not refer to today, but to the future: according to experts from the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, there are more than 50 percent that in the next thirty days there will be “a high risk escalation” and this could lead to overcrowding problems in ordinary wards and intensive care units of the regional network. The hope is that the measures taken so far can round the curve to prevent this from happening. President Zingaretti himself declared that “if the virus curve does not stop, the entire Italian system and also Lazio’s will go crazy. If the curve is not stopped, there would be a very serious problem of hospitality and containment of the health system. We are waiting and working so that the measures slow down the curve. ”Lazio has recently activated new beds dedicated to Covid patients: a total of 5,300 are available, of which 900 are intensive care. Currently 2,686 patients are hospitalized (data updated as of 8 November) and 237 are hospitalized patients in intensive care. These beds were created assuming a scenario of growth of infections until the end of November. If the curve does not flatten before that date, there will be problems, according to the same admission of regional leaders. For a few days, however, the increase in infections appears to have stabilized at around 2,500 cases a day. Many, but the practical upward trend mind would have stopped. In this sense, to confirm the data, the newsletters for the next three days will be decisive.
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