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Editorial Board
06 November 2020 05:35
While the controversy over the red, orange and yellow zones continues in the new Dpcm and the Regions do not seem to be at peace, soon everything could change. In the sense that with the arrival of the new data for the “automatic” indicators, some areas and territories that had been saved until November 3 could end up in the “soft” confinement established by the Ministerial Decree through the ordinance of the Ministry of Health.
New Dpcm: how you end up in the red zone
Let’s go in order. The assessment of the regions of the red, orange or yellow zone is carried out by means of a control room in which, in addition to the prevention department of the Ministry of Health (Gianni Rezza is the general director), the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (the President Silvio Brusaferro)) and the members appointed by the Conference of the Regions (in this case Lombardy, Campania and Umbria). The data collection activity has been active since last May. As we have explained, each of the three scenarios is associated with a different coronavirus risk. The first “scenario” is with Rt below the value 1, then between 1 and 1.25 where the “epidemic” is still manageable, and then between 1.25 and 1.50 where the epidemic is running fast. These scenarios determine the speed at which an infection is transmitted. The combination of risk scenarios acts as the main driver for the definition of the measures that we do not have to invent, but are defined in the documents ”, specified Brusaferro on the analysis of the data from the regional monitoring of the control room and the in depth of the indicators that have been brought to the ministry ordinance yesterday.
In order to monitor the trend of Covid-19 in Italy, “and quickly classify the level of risk in order to assess the need for modulations in the response to the epidemic, some indicators with thresholds and alerts have been designed that should be monitored, through coordinated surveillance systems at the national level, to obtain aggregated national, regional and local data. ”To illustrate the 21 indicators,“ divided into three main categories, ”as the president of the Higher Institute explained today to the Ministry of Health of Health Silvio Brusaferro, you will find a note from the General Directorate of Sanitary Prevention and the General Directorate of Sanitary Planning of the Ministry of Health of April 30. Having said that, how do you end up in the red zone and why are some regions ” save “?
Corriere della Sera explains today that in five regions (Abruzzo, Basilicata, Liguria, Veneto and Valle d’Aosta) some elements are missing. Others, however, such as the Aosta Valley, arrive in fits and starts, as well as Campania, Sicily, Marche and Friuli-Venezia Giulia.
The “delay in notification from Campania” could lead to an increase in cases in the coming days. But perhaps, by avoiding the red zone, the government has taken into account the additional measures decided by the Region, starting with the closure of schools.
While for Liguria a partial underestimation of the RT is suspected, which, however, Governor Giovanni Toti rejects: “We asked for a comparison before the decision, we could discuss it there.” And then there are more subtle gray areas, as in the case of the number of patients hospitalized in Cosenza: data transmitted 14, data published 2.
What are the risks of Campania, Veneto and Liguria?
Precisely for this reason there are some regions that are likely to soon end in areas other than yellow. As we explained yesterday, last Friday’s tracking was used to locate the six regions in the red and orange zones, based on data from October 19-25. But by Sunday the most updated data will arrive and, therefore, some regions may change position. Among these, he explains today Republic, there is Veneto that is among the yellow regions with reservation because its data is incomplete: “Considering the reassessment of the imminent risk on the updated data for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2020 – it is written in the latest report of Management: it is believed that special attention should be paid to these Regions to obtain an up-to-date and precise definition of the level of risk “. If the data is worse, the level jump will be activated. As we have written, Tuscany is also in danger.
As for Campania, many were surprised not to find it among the Orange Regions, given that in recent weeks it has had several problems, with a great growth in the spread of the virus and hospitals in difficulty. Also in your case there could be some news shortly, also because in the follow-up you are reminded to send a lot of incomplete data, in particular about hospitalizations.
And it doesn’t stop there: in Veneto, for example, there are 3,347 outbreaks, 1,716 of which are new. The untracked cases, for which no chain of transmission has been found, was 4,689 cases that were not tracked, a very high number. The control room, however, reports that in Veneto there is a “low percentage of data completeness.”
Therefore, it decided to consider the Region “not assessable, equated with high risk”. In Campania the incidence is 355.7 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants, 133 active outbreaks, of which 97 are new. Intensive care and internist departments are at 14 and 26% occupancy (but on Thursday the data rose to 27 and 37%).
The new untracked cases are 642. Although Campania has also reported incomplete numbers, the risk can still be calculated, in their case it is “moderate with a high probability of progression”.
Finally, it should be noted that once you have finished in a red zone it is difficult to get out. As Rezza explained yesterday, if the RT drops from 2 to 1.8 in a region, the virus is still running fast and therefore we must be careful. If, on the contrary, it increases without exceeding the threshold, it is true that the parameter remains the same, but due to the principle of prudence it is better to tighten before it is too late.
