“At this rate, it peaks in early December.”

The curve of the Covid-19 epidemic in Italy is slowing down And if this trend continues, it could peak in early December, after which there will be a gradual slowdown. This is indicated by the calculations made by the physicist Roberto Battiston, from the University of Trento, who also considers the effects of the measures introduced with the last Dpcm. “Using the available data to calculate the growth rate – said Battiston – we can extrapolate the trend of the total number of active infected during the next weeks. If the current trend of reduction in the growth rate continues, and the Dpcm of early November should contribute in this regard, it is expected that at the national level it will reach a peak in early December and then begin to decline.

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However, he added, “the situation must be continuously monitored for optimal management of the country’s health resources.” For Battiston “An exponential growth like that of October could not have been managed for long” and the measures foreseen in the two Dpcm of October, fortunately, seem to have had the effect of reversing the trend of the growth rate, while the effects of The last Dpcm will meet from November 14 to 15. The same considerations can be made for individual regions, each of which shows different dynamics. Meanwhile, the national total of cases continues to increase at a rate of 20-30,000 units per day due to an inertial trend in the epidemic. If growth had continued at the same rate, the cases would have already reached 1.3 million. Currently, however, the slowdown observed since the fourth week of October appears to continue. After the soaring January-February values, the lockdown for just over a month in mid-April pushed the growth rate back to zero and then negative, Battiston said. In fact, in mid-April, the total positive cases peaked at about 110,000, then declined and remained negative even after the June 14 reopening.».

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«Despite slight growth, he added, it remained negative until early August and suddenly doubled shortly after the week of August, when there was the highest concentration and movement of people throughout Italy and beyond. In September, however, the rate of infections began to decline, despite the reopening of productive activities: the epidemic and the restart seemed to be able to coexist, thanks to all the rules of social distancing and careful monitoring of outbreaks.». The race resumed in October when «the rate started to rise very quickly». As a step? According to Battiston “it was most likely the direct and indirect effect of the reopening of schools,” which took place «Swithout having properly organized the general infrastructure, including transportation, contact sports, and social activities for young people in general».

Last updated: 19:59


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