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“We evaluate the hypothesis for next weekend to apply the red zone measures for holidays and pre-holidays, with the protection of the smallest municipalities to travel”: it is almost one in the morning when the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza formalizes the government’s intentions on the restrictions that will be enacted throughout Italy after Epiphany. The expiration of Decree Law 172/2020, scheduled for January 7, could be extended with an ordinance of the ministry and there are two hypotheses on the ground: keep the measures in force until January 15, expiration date of Legislative Decree 158/2020 and from Dpcm December 3, or return to the yellow zone on January 7 and 8 and then go to the orange or red zone on the weekend of 9 and 10 and then, based on the monitoring of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, assign the zones to the regions starting the following Monday. “I don’t think these measures are enough to save us from the third wave, but I would not like to make a controversy,” says Speranza’s adviser, Walter Ricciardi. While the regions are open to parameter changes for the zones.
“We are having the technicians do an in-depth analysis to lower the RT thresholds to access the red or orange zone. Measure that affects the zoning model, ”Speranza confirmed yesterday to the regional presidents. Almost all presidents agree to strict measures for the next few weeks as well, as long as they are not changed from week to week and refreshment is guaranteed. Several governors would also agree on the restrictive modification of the RT to access the areas. Previously, the minister had met with the Scientific Technical Committee to discuss the modification of the parameters for the definition of the yellow, orange and red bands.
In government plans, therefore, the period from January 7 to 10 will be used to launch new parameters and indicators according to the National Institute of Health, the Scientific Technical Committee and the Ministry of Health: the idea is to activate the area orange when the contagion index Rt is greater than 1 and in the range of 1.25 and to trigger the red zone when it exceeds 1.25. Considering that no region currently has an incidence of 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the change could lead to ten regions to have greater restrictions. If the changes in the tracking system pass, starting on Monday 11 (since all of Italy will be orange on Saturday and Sunday), half of the country will change color, moving to areas with more restrictive measures than those provided for yellow. Emilia-Romagna, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Marche, Apulia, Sicily and Lombardy risk orange.
Red and orange zone: the ten regions at risk since January 11
“We are making the technicians do an in-depth analysis to lower the RT thresholds to access the red or orange zone. Measure that affects the zoning model,” Speranza reiterated. And it is that “we look at England that has exceeded 60 thousand infections a day and we must be aware of the exceptional work we have done. We must take serious precautions because that variant worries us about the speed of contagion.”
Why is the minister trying to lower the thresholds of the contagion index? According to the latest report from the Istituto Superiore di Sanità and the Ministry of Health, the Rt index in Italy stood at 0.93, which is just below the threshold of 1 (but according to the University of Trento physicist Roberto Battiston meanwhile has reached 0.99). According to the criteria established with the launch of the zone system, all of Italy is currently in the yellow zone because one of the criteria is that the RT is above 1.25 to activate the orange zone. The table showing timely RT indicators for December 21-27 updated to 29 showed these numbers.
Abruzzo: 0.65
Basilicata: 1.09
Calabria: 1.09
Campania: 0.78
Emilia-Romagna: 0.98
Friuli-Venezia Giulia: 0.96
Straight: 0.84
Liguria: 1.07
Lombardy: 1
Walk: 0.99
Molise: 0.89
Piedmont: 0.71
PA Bolzano: 0.76
PA Trento: 0.71
Apulia: 1
Sardinia: 0.78 (not assessable)
Sicily: 0.93
Tuscany: 0.79
Umbria 0.8
Aosta Valley: 0.83
Sicily in the balance
The change that the government is currently thinking about is to activate the orange zone when the contagion index is above 1 and activate the red zone if Rt is above 1.25. With these parameters, based on the tracking numbers for the week of December 21-27, the orange zone immediately endangers Veneto, Liguria, Calabria, Lombardy, Basilicata and Puglia. But there are four other regions on the balance sheet: Emilia-Romagna, Sicily, Friuli-Venezia Giulia and Marche.
However, only from the data analyzed on Friday will it be possible to identify the new colors of the various local realities. And this is because the ISS report, which in recent weeks was brought forward one day, will not arrive earlier than expected as had been announced in recent days (it was scheduled to be published on Wednesday 6 for Speranza to publish on time). for 7 the bridge ordinance). In fact, a follow-up is expected for the 8th, but first a legislative measure will have to modify the RT parameter to allow the Minister of Health to act on January 11th. But, why is it necessary to make the color system of the Regions more severe, lowering the bar that triggers closures? Il Messaggero explains that there is a double concern at the base:
Even so, the number of new infections is around an average of 15 thousand a day, the number of hospitalized by Covid has risen again and this represents a serious alarm. In addition, what we see happening in neighboring countries, such as Germany and especially the United Kingdom, tells us that the transmission of the virus has increased unexpectedly, also due to the presence of some variants, from the English one, that cause contagion. Too much faster. Intervening in a Region only when the RT is at 1.25 is likely to represent a late and ineffective intervention.
Dr. Flavia Riccardo, epidemiologist at the Department of Infectious Diseases of the Higher Institute of Health explains it well: “While in the growing phase of the epidemic, a high Rt was an effective tool and warned us in time of the increase in cases in Currently, with an already high number of infected subjects, a relatively low Rt is enough to give an unsustainable number of new cases with a very high impact. Even a Rt around 1 can already put health services in difficulties if the incidence is very high. ”
