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AGI – Three meetings, two states, an amazing ending to the game. The race to the White House has entered the nitroglycerin phase, anything it touches can explode. There are 18 days to vote, the games are not over yet, according to the polls that Joe Biden has already won, Donald Trump according to reality has not yet lost. On Trump’s steamroller day, in the morning with the elders in Fort Myers, in the afternoon with the Ocala group, at night with “Georgia on my mind” and the crowd (no mask) overflowing at every rally. After the morning and afternoon in Florida, the president flew to Georgia, to Macon. Another Make America Great Again Rally, the songs are the ones he has already played in Fort Myers and Ocala, Florida. We are in the final race of the campaign, Florida is a key state (29 large voters), always changing, Georgia (16 large voters) is considered a Republican stronghold in the south, crucial for a Trump victory, but right now with the polls that are pro-democrat. Could it be true? We will meet soon. In the Real Clear Politics average, Joe Biden leads by 1.2 points, while for Quinnipiac University he would be ahead of 7 points. Oh georgia In Macon, the poll of crowded Trump booths is another sign. If the campaign is what you see, the survey predictions are reversed. We’ll see.
The president’s hopes
Donald has a wonderful thought (Patty Pravo, 1978), that of Republican voters who don’t say it well, but do it very well for him. Trump says that “62% of the voters” are in the polling stations when they are interviewed by pollsters. Why is the president evoking a fact that may seem negative? Because it has an important meaning, the vote of the less noisy Trump fans according to many investigations also recently published (Cloudresearch, for example), they vote for Trump but they do not say it openly, they do not trust, they are a bit ashamed, in any case in domina their mistrust. And that’s why Trump at the Ocala rally says that “I don’t know if it’s true, but if that’s the case we will have the most resounding victory in history, there will be a historic red wave.” That is why we cannot rule out a landslide victory here, an avalanche victory for one of the two candidates, there are too many unspoken things, many (un) voluntary lies, and we are in the unknown land of the virus. We are facing another puzzle of the presidential campaign. First glow: all predictions are wrong (maybe).
The other element that must be taken into account to give a non-aseptic reading (which is always Martian) is called “enthusiasm”. Those who give the figures begin to awaken the imagination, also because last night Trump pronounced a phrase that went unnoticed, it refers to the distrust of Donald voters: “The Biden campaign has no enthusiasm, the only one is the one against us, and it usually doesn’t win, because it’s called negative enthusiasm. ” So Trump at the Ocala rally focuses on one of the least considered issues of the campaign closing, the enthusiasm of the Republican and Democratic constituencies. The Trumpian base appears much more motivated than the dem’s, as evidenced by polls on the support for the candidates. Biden lives in a paradox, his followers love him less than Trump, but he remains in clear advantage in the national averages of the presidential race. Trump highlighted this essential point of the end of the race for the White House, it could be decisive. And he encapsulated it in a formula that is the campaign’s choice: “The choice is between Trump’s recovery and Biden’s depression.” Second flash: the campaign is not what you read, but what you see.
The decisive states
The challenge is played as usual in a couple of statesAlthough compared to the past many certainties seem to have jumped, what was once swing today seems rock, like Georgia, where Trump closed his marathon, yesterday was considered a bastion of the conservative vote, but has presented good polls for Democrats. What to do? Trump responded from Trump, I’m doing a “Make America Great Again” event “again” there in Georgia (reiterates on the Macon stage) and let’s see who puts the plate on the table on November 3rd.
Another point that becomes a note in the notebook. Trump was very different from the man with the contracted face of the day before last night, when in the Nbc news town hall he had to deal with the position of ram of the journalist who led the debate, Savannah Guthrie to whom he will later dedicate these sweet thoughts : “Last night there was someone who went totally crazy.” Despite Ram Head Attacks, in Florida and Georgia Trump seemed very calm, he ordered, he spoke to the old man with a tone of irony, he made the cute and the one who is not afraid of losing because he will surely win. The two rallies in Ocala and Macon went to a full house (without a mask or almost) and it went from 60 to 90 minutes of the meeting, a sign that he is well, the president is really cured of the coronavirus.
Hope Hicks sul palco
Speaking of “healings” and the voting miracle zone: At one point during the Ocala rally, the crowd invokes Hope, who is certainly not Obama’s hope, but Hope Hicks, Trump’s favorite House aide . Bianca. Hope is a splendor, a waterfall of freshness, it is 31 years old, it is beautiful. Donald calls her on stage, just her, Hope Hicks, the first coronavirus-infected from the president’s staff. “She’s shy, but not that shy,” Trump says while waiting for her. In splendid, smiling form, gray suit, sleeveless, sixties style, a bit retro, diva glasses, Hicks captivates the audience and confesses: “The stage freezes me.” It is a symbolic passage from Trump’s rally in Ocala, more important than imagined, because it has a political meaning opposite to the democratic campaign: On stage there are two infected with coronavirus. Two Republicans. And healed: Donald and Hope, Trump and Hicks, lei e lui.
All the naked threads of the field resurface and knot. Remember the controversy over veterans that Trump allegedly declared “losers”? Well, Trump puts a patch on it and draws a perfect story to build a blitzkrieg campaign, because “surprisingly” a 105-year-old veteran appears front row listening to Donald Trump at the rally in Ocala, Florida. High-impact scene: Veteran looks sportier than ever, hail of applause, Trump comments, “He looks better than me, he has better hair than mine, he doesn’t need Regeneron, thank you and congratulations.” And video of Dan Scavino launching the electoral somersault on the Net on Twitter.
© AFP
Biden’s rally in Detroit
Biden doesn’t change strategy
Weapons to stop Cyclone Trump? Biden is campaigning on Biden, not exactly a happy thing. The behind-the-scenes footage is ruthless, a candidate without a crowd is sad at first, but in the polls he’s more than a winner, so until proven otherwise (the one with the ballot box) Biden is right and the strategy doesn’t change, at this point there is not even the time to do it. His speeches are not rallies, they are moments for television. Victory? On paper there is, in practice Barack Obama goes out into the field because what you never know begins to become a thick thing that does not sleep at night and gives a chill to the Democratic day. Thus Former President Obama will join Biden next week in Philadelphia, dem are playing all the heavy cards in the grand finale. Trump’s reaction? He boasts of confidence, says he is not afraid because Obama had been spent, unsuccessfully, also by Hillary Clinton in 2016. “Obama did not endorse (Biden) because he knew what was on his mind,” was Trump’s lunge. . What is going to happen? There are all the elements of a nightmare, rerun of 2016: an unwanted candidate from the dem base (but better than Hillary), Barack making an appearance on the scene, the Philadelphia set, and Bruce Springsteen who, like last time, assures that “Trump will lose the elections.” They have never recovered from the shock of that defeat, the earthquake 4 years ago, Trump.
As in any election, there is the whirlwind of plots and enemies. Trump has and sees many. So in the Ocala meeting the great technological party materializes, according to Trump “with Joe Biden there is 99% of Silicon Valley” and that is why it is indisputable for him that “we are going against the media, against the left and against big technology.” Along with conspiracies, ghosts, ghosts, fears of old cinema from the fifties and sixties float in the air that here in Florida always seem to work: “Look Venezuela, it was a rich country, it had everything and now they don’t have food and medicine, it can happen to us too, “Trump told senior Republican voters at the Fort Myers rally. “They want to make the United States unrecognizable,” he says. The Castroist danger in an overloaded version, the vote of Cubans, Hispanics, is at stake, with them you win, you lose with everyone.
The Battle for Amy Coney Barrett
You win (and you lose) with all the good arguments to capture the attention of the many Americas that make America, that’s why The battle in Congress for the appointment of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court is crucial.For Trump, they are not the judicial decisions of tomorrow, they are the votes of today’s Catholics. Next week we will vote in committee, the first step in the final test of the nomination, before the presidential elections. Grand finale. He will, Republicans seem compact, and Barrett responded in kind during the hearings, never bothering with urgent questions from Democrats. Calm and chalk, we play pool and all the balls are getting into. And the news, however, is him with his campaign, Trump. If he loses it is the very rare case of an incumbent who is not reconfirmed in the White House, if he wins we face a blow that overturns history.
Every word of his speeches is weighted, calibrated to hit an exact spot in the electorate, the many parts of the American social pie, the work of ghostwriters and strategists can be seen when you follow Trump on the same day multiple times and in different situations. .. The economy is the key to (re) opening the door of the White House: “The best is yet to come, we are almost back where we were, next year will be great” and in “Covid we are turning the corner”. What draws attention is not the claims, the hyperbole, this is part of the presidential campaign, but the calm with which Trump talks about the future, it is as if he had a card in his pocket that no one else sees. However, all the official data, which in any case must be weighed, evaluated, deciphered, aligned to draw a context, are negative: the national average of Real Clear Politics in the polls sees it separated by 8.9 points; in the Battlefield States, the blow of the dem blue wall that assured him victory in the Rust Belt seems impossible; even television ratings see him chasing him, with the city hall the day before yesterday on Nbc that despite being sparkling (10.6 million viewers) was beaten by Biden’s chamomile on ABC (13.9 million), surprise, Trump did not makes more public and perhaps, for the man who was the icon of television, the presenter of Apprentice, this is the true gong of the bell. He does not seem worried at all, on stage, in front of his fans, he becomes an actor and ends with a joke: Trump making Trump, the bon ton, presidential version impossible. He stages it in Georgia and assures that “it is much more difficult as I do the president.” Trump, for better or for worse, is inimitable. Especially for Trump.
