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The variant of Covid 19 that scares the whole of Europe was effectively isolated in England in September, but its dangerousness and contagion were only true on December 8 after the analysis of infections in some British regions. Even if everyone is optimistic today, the responses of scientists about its danger and possible defenses are much more cautious. The editors of the leading English scientific publication, the British Medical Journal, put them together (some things of interest to the British public). And they are not reassuring: the new virus would seem more dangerous for children thanks to its contagion. And no less comforting is the answer to the question about masks and protective devices: do they protect as with the original virus? “It is not known at the moment” … How uncertain it is whether the efficacy of the first vaccines against the new coronavirus should be seriously answered. It should be yes from what is known so far, but it could be no. Here are all the questions and answers published by the European scientific bible …
Is the new variant more contagious?
Yes, based on a review of current evidence from the UK New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threat Advisory Group (NERVTAG). The report of December 18 indicated that the transmission rate of the variant, known as B.1.1.7 or VUI 202012/01 (variant under consideration, year 2020, month 12, variant 01), was 71% (interval of 95% confidence 67% to 75%), higher than other variants and which may also have a higher viral load. While earlier variants emerged without clear evidence of a selective advantage, the report notes, the “emergence and subsequent dominance” of this new variant during a period of relatively high prevalence indicated that it has a “selective advantage over other variants.” .
When did the new variant appear?
The first known case of this new variant was registered on September 20 and was sequenced in early October.
How long has the government known?
There has been much speculation about how long the government was aware of the new variant and whether it should have acted sooner. Speaking at a Science Media Center briefing on December 21, epidemiologist Susan Hopkins of Public Health England said it became clear that this variant was only important in December. “The virus [SARS-CoV-2] it changes constantly, “he said.” Even in March there were eight main lineages that were breaking up. Monitoring virus mutations is how we create the genetic family tree of viruses and how we monitor epidemics. ”In this situation, towards the end of November it became clear that the Kent and Medway region, in particular, was going against the grain of the restrictions nationals and experienced increases, while since November 20 almost all other parts of the country have started to decline. ” Hopkins explained that an initial review examined whether this increase in Kent was related to a particular population group or to epidemics in the workplace. When this was shown not to be the case, PHE reexamined genomic epidemiology for changes. “On December 8 they discovered that there was a particular variant that had some mutations in the spike protein that had emerged quite quickly and was spreading not only in the South East but also in parts of London,” he said. “So, over the next 48 hours, they quickly undertook an investigation examining the phylogenetic tree and clinical details of the patients in whom the cases had arisen. They wrote an initial document on December 10, which was submitted to NERVTAG, and it was that document that later started more discussions on new epidemiological models and clinical work. ”On December 18, more data was provided to the government and updated. , the prime minister announced that much of south-east England, including London, would be subject to Level 4 restrictions and that he would change the previously announced relaxation of the rules for Christmas.
What mutations does this variant have?
The new variant is defined by 14 mutations that result in amino acid changes and three deletions, some of which are believed to affect the transmissibility of the virus in humans. The World Health Organization reported that one of the identified mutations (N501Y) is altering an amino acid within the six key residues in the receptor-binding domain.3 This same receptor-binding domain mutation (N501Y) has been reported ). also in South Africa (n = 45), where it arose independently of the UK variant, and Australia (n = 37). Another important change is a deletion at position 69/70, which has been found to affect the performance of some diagnostic polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests that use a target S (peak) gene.
Does it affect the tests?
Potentially, but the PCR test has a safety net. Speaking on the BBC’s Today radio show, Wendy Barclay, head of the infectious diseases department at Imperial College London, said the PCR tests were based on three different tests. One of these tests detects the S or peak part of the virus. “One of the ways this [nuova variante del virus] It was found that the S part of the test does not seem to perform as well in this variant. This is not a problem in terms of the number of cases, because we have two other backup parties that are still detecting the virus, “he said. Less is known about the effect of mutations in lateral flow tests, rapid reversal tests that are they are expected to be rolled out in schools in England in January and an investigation is under way.
Could the new variant affect vaccines?
The message from the experts who spoke at a Science Media Center briefing on covid-19 was that the new variant was unlikely to render the vaccines ineffective. Peter Openshaw, former president of the British Society for Immunology and professor of experimental medicine at Imperial College London, a member of NERVTAG, said: “We know that natural infection or vaccination will elicit a series of antibody responses. While some of the mutations in the new variant are expected to affect some of the sites recognized by the antibodies, it does not seem likely that they affect all of them. “It is clearly important that all of this is tested and that people are working in the labs as we speak to try to get some preliminary answers in the next few days, but it is not fast science. We have to wait for the virus to grow and test different sera So this information could come out in the next few weeks. ”
Are children more susceptible to the new variant?
Yes, compared to the non-variant virus. Speaking at a press conference, Neil Ferguson, director of the Center for the Analysis of Global Infectious Diseases at the Medical Research Council at Imperial College London and a member of NERVTAG, said that during the close of November in England there was a “general change in the distribution of the virus to children, both for variants and non-variants [virus]. “This was expected, because the schools remained open during the closure, he said, and among those under 15 there were slightly more cases of the variant of the virus in the community than the non-variant, although not significantly. But Barclay, who is also a member of NERVTAG, said: “Let’s be clear. We are not saying that this is a virus that specifically attacks children or that it is more specific in its ability to infect children. But we do know that SARS-CoV-2, as it turned out, was not as effective in infecting children as it was in adults. There are many hypotheses [sul perché], but one is the expression of the ACE2 receptor which may be different in children. So if the virus [nuova variante] have a harder time finding and entering cells, this would put the children on an equal footing if you wish. “
Do they protect current intellectual property rights against it?
While this is something that healthcare professionals are understandably eager to discover, the government has not mentioned any difference in the effectiveness of personal protective equipment. The UK Physicians Association wrote to Matt Hancock, UK Health and Welfare Secretary, to highlight their concern over the lack of new IPR guidelines in light of the increased transmissibility of the new variant. Zainab Najim, UK Primary Care Registrar and Association Secretary, said: “Without a universal policy to vaccinate at the forefront, patient staffing as a priority and without a review of current PPE guidelines, we could face preventable illnesses and staff absences during the difficult winter months. We are also concerned that without increasing current PPE guidelines, staff themselves will be at risk not only of contracting the virus but of transmitting it to vulnerable patient populations. ” .
Has the variant spread across the UK?
The variant is concentrated in the south east and east of England and the emerging hot spots in south Wales and Cumbria. But there are cases across the UK, NERVTAG members said.
And outside the UK?
A handful of countries have confirmed cases of the new variant, including Australia, Denmark, Italy, Iceland and the Netherlands. Hopkins said many more countries are likely to report cases soon. He said: “I think it’s very likely that it came up here. However, it is very likely that it will also be in other countries, because in the last three months there has been round-trip transport between many European countries. “Any other European country, except Denmark, so it may take some time to know the scope spread of the variant. “Denmark probably sequences around 20% now and has increased its sequencing capacity after the mink variant. Most other European countries sequence maybe 1%, and often much less, and many they don’t have sequencing capabilities. “
How are other countries responding?
More than 40 countries have stopped all forms of travel to and from the UK to try to reduce the likelihood of the new variant spreading to their populations. In particular, France closed the border with the United Kingdom, blocking the transport of goods to and from the United Kingdom through the Port of Dover. All mail services to Europe (with the exception of the Republic of Ireland) have also been temporarily suspended.
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