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AGI – The few days off for vacations are over, now In the next few hours the knots that entangle relations in the majority and in the government will reach a critical point. From the political and institutional point of view, the paths that can be followed are different, from the reorganization of the Conteter, from the government of national unity to the elections.
The premise is that you can only speak of a government crisis when the prime minister is discouraged or resigns and that before that the president of the republic has no official function. You can listen to the protagonists, you have already done so in recent weeks by having conversations with all the political leaders as well as with the Prime Minister; it can advise, suggest, warn, remember the precedents. But he cannot make operational decisions and, among other things, the current tenant of the Colle has never liked to intervene, except when it was strictly necessary.
Renzi’s requests
After the findings of Matteo Renzi, but also of the Pd, the M5 and Leu, Conte was able to satisfy all your requests and the fibrillations could disappear. To understand if this path will be viable, we will have to wait for the first majority meeting and the first Council of Ministers, which should take place in the first week of January. In this case, the President of the Republic would never enter the scene.
Conte was able to accommodate many of the requests of the parties and among these also the idea of a strengthening of the team. We would go to a shakeup that is, the entry of new ministers instead of others, and perhaps even the support of two adjunct premieres in Conte. In the event of a major reorganization, the Head of State could recommend a new parliamentary approval to gain new confidence without going through a crisis. Thus a Conte II bis government would be born.
The launch of Italia Viva
If, on the other hand, Matteo Renzi withdraws Iv’s delegation from the government, the crisis would in fact be and it would be difficult for Conte to avoid a formal crisis. The premier said that he intends to go to Parliament without giving up looking for votes to “replace” those of the IV, but net of the current unavailability of many, it would be difficult to create a new government without the opening of a formal crisis. replace one force with another without going through a caesura.
Therefore, most likely Conte will go to the Quirinal to resign, he could start his own consultations to see if the crisis can return. Italia alive could withdraw the delegation but continue to support the government with external support (which, however, Renzi excluded) or it could decide to lose its confidence. In the latter case, the crisis would be full-blown and consultations with the President of the Republic should begin.
The assumptions of different majorities
The crisis could be positively resolved if a new government were created. On the table the possibilities are the birth of a Count III if a new majority force enters instead of Iv. Or the birth of a government of broad agreements led by another personality (some mention Mario Draghi, even if the interested party has not yet officially announced anything about his possible availability). There will hardly be a government of the president because Mattarella has made it known repeatedly that he does not like these types of executives. The responsibility to govern must be based on Palazzo Chigi with the support of Parliament.
If negotiations to give birth to a new government drag on for too long, eventually, it would also be difficult to counter the objection that the current Parliament has no right to continue the legislature and the slide into snap elections could take shape. Therefore, the spring vote remains a possibility on the tableDespite the situation, he does not recommend it among the options to be preferred.
