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The advance of the coronavirus in Italy he made the “very serious” situation, with several regions “classified as high risk of a uncontrolled and uncontrollable epidemic“It has been since Red alert the weekly report published byHigher Institute of Health and the Ministry of Health. Experts confirm that the epidemic is steadily and rapidly worsening, with more and more regions approaching the highest levels of risk to public health, with the health system already put to the test. Most of the national territory is compatible with scenario 3, but the Regions or Autonomous Provinces where the transmission speed is already scenario 4.
“All Regions / AP – we read – are classified as high risk of an uncontrolled and unmanageable epidemic in the area or moderate risk with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the coming weeks. Is essential strengthen mitigation measures in all Regions / PA “. Parallel to the increase in cases, there are more and more”strong criticalities of local services and the actual or imminent achievement of critical occupancy thresholds for hospital services in all Regions / AP ”, explain the ISS experts in reference to the period from October 15 to 28, the week in which the transmissibility index Rt calculated on symptomatic cases was equal to 1.72, and most regions show mean levels above the critical threshold of 1.5. There Lombardy with 2.08 it is the region with the highest Rt in the week October 26 – November 1, 2020. Basilicata with 1.99, Piedmont with 1.97, Molise with 1.88. and the Autonomous Province of Bolzano with 1.87. All other regions, including the autonomous province of Trento, have Rt above 1.5, except the Sardinia (1.24), the Market (1.29), the Lazio (1.36), the Sicily (1.4) and Liguria (1.48).
As expected, even in the week in question there was a sharp increase in cases which raises the cumulative incidence in the last 14 days to 523.74 per 100,000 inhabitants in the October 19-November 1 period (compared to 279.72 per 100,000 inhabitants in the October 12-25 period). During the same period, the number of symptomatic cases went from 54,377 to 129,238.
In addition to the difficulty of stopping the spread of the virus, ISS experts explain that it is increasingly difficult to identify sources of contagion: “The number of cases not attributable to known transmission chains continues to increase (74,967 this week compared to 49,511 the previous week), which exceeds 80% of the new cases reported in some Regions / AP,” they write. To this are added the “criticisms to maintain the quality of data reported to the surveillance system both for timeliness (late notification of cases) and for completeness. This led to a delay in receiving the consolidated data from the Regions / PA this week. This constitutes one more proof of the generalized criticality throughout the territory due to the seriousness of the epidemiological situation ”which can lead to an underestimation of the speed and incidence of transmission.
For this the risk monitoring must be constant, precisely so as not to be prepared in the event of a sudden increase in cases at the regional level and to isolate areas where spikes of infections or outbreaks occur: “Regions / PAs are invited to carry out a continuous risk analysis, even in regional, and consider a timely increase in mitigation measures in the most affected areas depending on the level of risk and in accordance with the guidelines ”.
The Institute recommends that all local authorities anticipate as a precautionary measure restrictions anticipated the immediately higher risk levels, in order to try to stop the spread of the virus in time. “For Regions / PAs classified as moderate risk with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next month -they explain-, given the high transmissibility and the high probability of an imminent transition to the high-risk classification, it is recommended to consider quickly anticipate measurements planned for the high risk level and the corresponding scenario as reported in the document ‘Prevention and response to Covid-19’ “.
Avoid to a minimum, for example, physical interactions between people to relieve pressure on health services. It is essential that the population avoid all occasions of contact with people outside their own. housing core they are not strictly necessary and stay home as long as possible.
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