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ROME Italy in a single day marks an increase of 21% in new positive cases, reaching 4,458 without there being a significant increase in tampons compared to the previous day. 125,000 tests were performed on Wednesday, yesterday 780 more positives were found with 128,000 swabs. And the RT, the virus transmission rate, is between 1.3 and 1.4, therefore close to the threshold that, if confirmed for two weeks, would trigger new measures. All Regions – to be confirmed today by the evaluation of the control room of the Ministry of Health – have seen an increase in RT; Last week 12 were above 1, considered a critical limit, today in the new report others will be added, starting with Lazio which is 1.1. If the growth rate of the epidemic continues at these rates, it is likely that the situation will approach that of Spain, England and France, also taking into account that hospitalizations are also increasing, although much more slowly (yesterday plus 4 percent). hundred). Not only that: if we are seeing the effect of the reopening of schools (September 14), then the problem is serious. But some areas of the country are concerning, notably Campania, which appears to be out of control. It has the record of new positives in one day: 758, of which 448 were concentrated only in the province of Naples. And it reaches those numbers by making a much smaller number of swabs (9,925) than the other regions.
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Critical data
To understand: Lazio has 359 new positives, but based on 13,333 swabs, Lombardy reaches 683 but performing 22,000 tests. If we consider the number of people tested (and not the number of swabs), Campania has a positive percentage of 9.5 percent (Lazio out of 3). It means that one in ten people among those who are swabs in Naples and its surroundings is infected. If there were as many tests as in Lazio or Lombardy, the numbers would skyrocket. A situation that alarms the Lazio Region, according to which at least 10,000 people arrive from Campania every day for work reasons. And many are teachers.
Therefore, the alarm grows in the Ministry of Health. In fact, the Rt transmissibility index represents the average number of infections produced by each infected individual, after the application of containment measures. Therefore, it allows us to evaluate the effectiveness of the measures taken to limit the spread of Covid. And with the index close to the alert threshold set by the Scientific Technical Committee (CTS) at 1.5, it goes without saying that the government will have to evaluate new interventions between now and October 15, the Dpcm expiration date of September 7. recently extended with only two new features: the obligation to wear a mask outdoors (with the exception of being alone or as a couple) and indoors in the presence of other people and the prohibition of the Regions to proceed with more permissive ordinances without the green light from the Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza.
Towards new measures
In the government, given the “drastic worsening” of the situation, an attempt is made to relaunch collaboration with the governors: “We take advantage of the days that separate us from October 15 to work together in the next Dpcm and strengthen loyal collaboration”, is the call. Minister for Regional Affairs, Francesco Boccia. And above all, it is considered to include other interventions at the national level in the new Dpcm, if the health system shows more criticalities, which should follow the ordinance for Latina of the governor of Lazio, Nicola Zingaretti: space for 20 people for celebrations and religious ceremonies, the maximum number of 4 diners per table for restaurants and nightclubs, closing at 24 for pubs, bars and restaurants (nationally it could go down at 23 to stop the nightlife in large cities), ban on meeting in front of schools, public places and offices. There is also a fee for those who attend gyms and dance schools and an invitation to encourage smart work. As planned, at the request of the CTS, limitations on massive events.
If this does not stop the spread of the virus, then other steps will be necessary, going back with respect to the May-June reopening: the first to close would be cinemas, theaters, gyms, swimming pools; followed by hairdressers and beauty centers. Then bars and restaurants and finally shops. At this point, however, Speranza no longer even excludes the national confinement (“we work day and night to avoid it”), which in March and April did not even allow to attend to family and friends. And this would serve, as a last resort, to stop infections in the family, which account for 70% of the total.
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In Italy, the 3% threshold indicating the relationship between positive cases of coronavirus and manufactured tampons has been exceeded: what experts have defined as the “embankment” of the pandemic according to physicist Giorgio Sestili, founder and among the editors of the Facebook page “Coronavirus: Scientific data and analysis”.
Last update: 00:17
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