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In Lombardy, the trend of RT, the contagion index, registers a anomalous tendency. The engineer points this out Arturo artom and the physicist Roberto battiston, former president of ASI. Both observed that the Rt index, after reaching its lowest value since the beginning of autumn around November 25, below 0.7, continues to fluctuate around 0.8 while in many other regions it continues to fall towards lower values. . Battiston and Artom then analyzed the contagion curve in Lombardy and throughout Italy to understand the reason for this anomaly. It turned out that in the region of Attilio fontana, from the beginning to the end of September, the index is fell to a value of 1.0, and then rise rapidly from the first days of October. The same happened at the national level.
“If we consider that the number of infected represents the effect of social dynamics dating back about ten days before, we understand how the rapid resumption of infection since the beginning of October and that we identify as a” second wave ” not due to summer behavior, but to what has happened in our cities since mid-September, namely, the reopening of offices and the resumption of school activity, ”Battiston and Artom write in Corriere della Sera. According to them, the curve has risen not so much for the return to the office or school, but for overcrowding in public transport and for lack of preparation for the reopening. The curve changed again around October 23: the RT dropped again, in Lombardy and throughout Italy. “If we look at the cause of this sudden change of direction, we discover that ten days earlier, on October 13, the Dpcm with new restrictive measures“, says the engineer and physicist.
On November 6, however, the division of the country into red, orange and yellow zones. And this is where we come to a standstill, according to Battiston and Artom: “The effects of this measure, which introduces very severe measures in the red regions, do not seem to lead to further improvements in the rate of decline of Rt.” As of November 27, we witnessed the arrest of the decline in the index. But what is the reason? According to both, “it cannot be excluded that the new measures have had counterproductive effectsi: forcing the inhabitants of medium-large cities within the limits of their municipalities may have somehow favored new contacts or meetings to determine the resumption of the infection “.
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