A “soft” blockade in ten days?

Ten days to decide on the confinement. Which in any case will be “softer” than in March. Giuseppe Conte wants to wait before launching a new Dpcm although there are forces in the majority that asked for more measures within the weekend and, above all, they do not want to move before other European countries, whose situation in the coronavirus emergency is objectively worse than to that of Italy.

A “soft” blockade in ten days?

But above all, the government is aware that public opinion is much more hostile than six months ago with respect to the hypothesis of a new generalized shutdown and is beginning to wonder what the institutions have done to prevent it. To do this, you intend to wait at least ten days before moving in. Ten days in which we will study the numbers carefully before moving on to considering the numbers.

Those of Civil Protection, published in the bulletin on the coronavirus emergency, continue to worsen: yesterday 16,079 cases and 136 deaths while in six regions there were more than a thousand new cases: Lombardy (4,125), Piedmont (1,550), Campania (1,541) ), Veneto (1,325), Lazio (1,251) and Tuscany (1,145). The least affected is Molise with 28 new cases. And then there are the intensive care numbers. For now, the executive chooses to move gradually with the goal of keeping productive activities and schools open. But if the escalation of positives continues and, above all, of those hospitalized, he is ready to change gears. The threshold set is 2300 people in intensive care, yesterday they were 992: 66 more than the day before.

A situation that, admits the premier Giuseppe Conte in the Chamber, “is proving very critical” and that could lead to a new squeeze by the executive, not during the weekend but – writes the Ansa agency – probably already in the first days of next week: “we are ready to intervene if necessary”, confirms the Prime Minister. Meanwhile, regional presidents continue to raise the bar and yesterday they came to ask that transfers be avoided not only between regions, but also between municipalities. Sicilia (Musumeci) has already been presented. Sardinia (Solinas) has closed ports and airports, while among the measures adopted by Campania is also the prohibition of movement between provinces.

So now the watchword is: wait. Ten days before a “soft” closure that will likely include a ban on leaving home except for school, work or health reasons and a total block on travel between regions. Start. We’ll see. With an eye on the situation in Germany, France and Spain, as well as in Ireland where there is already an example of a “soft” confinement with open schools and the possibility of traveling up to five kilometers from home.

A new Dpcm in the coming days and a curfew at 9pm throughout Italy

And another eye, today explains Republic in an article by Tommaso Ciriaco, next Wednesday to test the effect of universal masks on the curve, even if the gyms close first:

Then you will start thinking about what to do in early November, at the end of the ten days. It will evaluate the limits of non-essential movements, which in any case it will approve only after the drastic decisions of other European Chancelleries. However, be aware that ten days is probably too long. At least in this, there is no need to even confront Speranza.

“The generalized confinement can be avoided if rapid, urgent and forceful measures are taken now, but not with those that are currently being taken,” warns Speranza’s consultant, Walter Ricciardi, arguing that this situation has occurred “because we have not done what we should have done. ” two weeks ago. “Even the director of infectious diseases at the Sacco di Milano Massimo Galli is peremptory:” if the trend is not reversed in the next 20 days, much more drastic interventions may be needed. If necessary, a curfew will also be applied throughout Italy. It is arithmetic, not science. “We will intervene, therefore, but how? The slogan is” gradualism “: it is probable that the first to close will be the game rooms and shopping centers, then it will be the turn of the gyms, although the Minister Vincenzo Spadafora has issued the new protocol that introduces stricter rules precisely to avoid closure – then again it will be the turn of bars and restaurants and, if necessary, there will be a ban on travel between regions. The turn of the screw, says today the Corriere della Sera, foresees a 9 pm curfew throughout Italy as an extreme measure:

If in seven days the trend of the curve is not reversed, at 9:00 p.m. there will be a curfew throughout Italy, an extreme measure, which Prime Minister Conte had also rejected because it would imply the lockout of bars and restaurants. By limiting travel, the virus is expected to slow down, not to reach that maximum threshold for intensive care (2,300, 30 percent of the total number of places) that risks triggering the lockdown.

Meanwhile, as the last Dpcm envisioned, the Regions have begun to move with ordinances that have led to the most predictable outcome: a series of rules that differ from territory to territory. Curfew in Lombardy from 23:00 to 05:00, in Lazio (where it starts at midnight from tonight) and in Campania, where the inter-province traffic ban is already in force. The Lombard governor, like the Piedmontese Cirio, then decided to close the shopping centers for the weekend while Zaia continues to say no to any intervention: “better the mask than the mini-confinement”.

In Sardinia, President Christian Solinas is expected to sign an ordinance closing the entire region for the next 15 days, but only after administrative elections. Ports, airports and main activities closed. Even the governor of Puglia, Michele Emiliano, has suspended all teaching activities in presence for the three years of secondary schools until November 13, despite the fact that the Dpcm asks that the father be raised to 50%. And then there are mayors like those of Rome and Palermo who think about banning some areas of the nightlife from 9pm on weekends. In Rome we will begin by cordoning off the squares. We’ll see.

Towards a new blockade? The squeeze in the regions: all current regulations