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Flying could cost at least 50% more than next year today, but with 102% peaks for certain routes, if civil aviation authorities made social distance on board mandatory to contain the spread of the coronavirus that forces companies to Leave the middle seat empty. To support it, IATA, the leading international association of airlines, in a conference call with foreign media, including the Messenger Service. This price increase would not only end up slowing the recovery of air transport, but would lead almost all airlines to fly at a loss, since they would not obtain the necessary income even to cover operating costs, the organization warns. Which estimates a double increase for tickets on flights operated by regional aircraft.
Clear market
The pandemic has eliminated air travel due to the stoppage of travel and blockages between countries. In Europe and the United States there are practically no reserves for the coming weeks, calculates Brian Pearce, IATA chief economist. In China, where the peak passed, the reserves continue to mark -67%, which shows that people have not yet started to fly completely. Meanwhile, governments and companies are already thinking about the next phase, that of reopening the borders and traveling again. For now we proceed in random order. Italy, the most restrictive nation, foresees a distance of at least one meter between passengers for flights from abroad. This forces companies to leave at least the seat half empty. To date, there is no international standard that dictates distance, says Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s number one.
The price curve
Upon returning to the flight, Pearce estimates, tickets on at least domestic flights could drop 40%, depending on the performance of the Chinese market. But this, explains the chief economist, should happen because companies need to recover as many passengers as possible. It will be for a temporary convenience, because the social distancing in the medium and long term would have a significant impact on operating costs: the carriers that companies can sell will have to offload these costs on the rates. For this reason, IATA opposes flying aircraft with an empty center seat. Not only because it considers that it is ineffective to stop the spread of the coronavirus, but also economically unsustainable.
Airplane costs
Here are the estimates. In a short- and medium-range aircraft, an Airbus A320, or a Boeing 737, the most widely used by traditional, low-cost carriers, social distancing would only make 67% of the seats salable, says Brian Pearce. But it remains difficult for carriers to sell all seats on one flight. For this reason, the maximum fill rate should be around 62%. A value lower than the minimum value for a flight to reach the break-even point (in Europe, the average of 79%). The difference would be paid to passengers. And so, in an Airbus A320, the average fare would go from $ 86 per passenger (2019 values) to $ 129, which is equivalent to + 50%. On intercontinental flights with a Boeing 777-300, the ticket would increase from $ 202 to $ 337 (+ 67%), on a regional plane such as an Embraer E-190 from $ 87 to $ 176 (+ 101%), and on a Dhc turboprop. 8 -400 from 61 to 123 dollars (+ 102%).
For macro areas
At the continental level, the introduction of social distancing on board would bring an average increase of 43-54% in rates. In Europe, IATA estimates, the cost increase would be 49%, considering that the majority of passengers move in Boeing 737 and Airbus A320, which raises the average price of $ 135 last year to 201 of next year . Actually, a theoretical price because, according to the international association, this increase would only serve to cover the additional costs derived from the lack of sale of the intermediate seats. Therefore, it is conceivable that the increase would be greater since carriers need to make a profit. How few profits. According to IATA, of 122 companies analyzed, only 4 would win even taking off empty vehicles. Everyone else would end up losing a lot of money.
