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Taking into account the month of March, the report reads, there is an increase in deaths from the general cause of 49.4% at the national average level. If we take as a reference the period from the first death of Covid-19 reported to the Integrated Surveillance System (February 20) to March 31, the deaths range from 65,592 (average period 2015-2019) to 90,946 in 2020. The excess 25,354 died, 54% of which were diagnosed as Covid-19 deaths (13,710). Due to the strong concentration of the phenomenon in some areas of the country, the nationally reported data “flatten” the size of the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on total mortality. It should be noted, in fact, that the vast majority of deaths are registered in the provinces defined as high diffusion (89%), where it is 8% in the medium diffusion areas and 3% in the low diffusion areas.
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Coronavirus, why the north and not the south?
In the north, mortality doubled: +586 in Bergamo
91% of the excess mortality found nationwide in March 2020, according to the report, is concentrated in the areas of high spread of the epidemic: 3,271 municipalities, 37 provinces in the north plus Pesaro and Urbino. In all these provinces, deaths from all causes have more than doubled compared to the average of 2015-2019 for the month of March. If we consider the period from February 20 to March 31, the deaths have gone from 26,218 to 49,351 (+ 23,133); just over half of this increase (52%) are deaths reported to the Covid-19 Integrated Surveillance System (12,156).
Within this group, the provinces most affected by the epidemic paid a very high price in human lives with percentage increases in deaths in March 2020 compared to March 2015-2019 in three figures: Bergamo (568%), Cremona (391 %), Lodi (371%), Brescia (291%), Piacenza (264%), Parma (208%), Lecco (174%), Pavia (133%), Mantua (122%), Pesaro and Urbino (120 %).
In the center and in the south, deaths decreased: -9.4 in Rome
In several areas of Italy, the people least affected by the virus (largely prevalent in Centrosud) in March 2020 are even less dead than the average in recent years: in general, we read in the Istat / Iss report on the impact of Covid-19 on mortality, in areas of low diffusion (1,817 municipalities, 34 provinces mainly in the Center and the South), deaths in March 2020 are on average 1.8% lower than the average of the five previous years. The figure of Rome stands out, which in March marks a -9.4% compared to the average mortality of the last 5 years: 3,757 deaths this year, 4,121 on average. Also in Naples, which registers a mortality of -0.9%
The “three Italias”
To “correctly read” the data on deaths after the coronavirus, according to Istat, one must speak of “three Italy.” “The geographical spread of the Covid-19 epidemic is heterogeneous,” the report reads. “In the southern regions and on the islands, the spread of infections was very limited; in the central regions, it was on average higher than in the south, while in the northern regions, the virus circulation was very high. To evaluate Propagation to In the provinces and to eliminate heterogeneity due to the different age structures of the corresponding populations, standardized incidence rates as of March 31 of confirmed positive cases for infection were calculated.The distribution of these rates was divided into three classes: the first, defined as “low” diffusion, includes the provinces with rate values of less than 40 cases per 100,000 residents, the second, defined as “medium” diffusion, includes the provinces with rate values between 40 and 100 cases each 100,000 residents, the third class, defined as “high” diffusion, includes the provinces with values greater than 100 cases for every 100,000 residents. “
Basically, with the exception of some “enclaves”, the division is quite homogeneous between the North (with a part of the Center), the Center and the South. In the medium and low incidence areas, the number of cases begins to increase from mid-March. peak, respectively, between March 24 and 25, 2020. “For these areas, after reaching the peak, the report underlines, there has been no steady decline, a clear sign that the epidemic, albeit more slowly However, it is still ongoing. However, it should be noted that the curve of diagnosed cases has suffered the deceleration observed mainly due to the measures of “confinement“Undertaken first in some areas of the north and then throughout the national territory since March 11.” The vast majority of deaths occur in the provinces defined as high diffusion (89%), where it is 8% in medium diffusion areas and 3% in low diffusion areas. 32% of the total deaths involved the female gender, this proportion remains unchanged within the class defined as high diffusion, while it is slightly higher in the other two classes (34% for the medium diffusion, 35% for the low).
The 13,710 deaths between February and March
From February 20 to March 31, 2020, there are 13,710 Covid-19 deaths in Italy. This is the “first time, the Report notes, that Istat disseminates this information in reference to such a large number of municipalities.”
Considering the month of March, it is explained in the Report, an increase of 49.4% of the deceased is observed at the national average level. Covid-19 case fatality is higher in male subjects in all age groups, with the exception of the 0-19 age group. In 34.7% of the reported cases, at least one comorbidity is reported (one of: cardiovascular, respiratory, diabetes, immune deficiencies, metabolic, oncological pathologies, obesity, kidney pathologies).
In the areas with average spread of the epidemic (1,778 municipalities, 35 provinces mainly in the center-north), the increase in deaths from the complex of causes in the period from February 20 to March 31 is much more contained, from 17,317 to 19,743 (2,426 more compared to the 2015-2019 average); 47% are attributable to deaths with a positive result for Covid-19 (1,151).
