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Soldi in the account. Tanti. As much as possible. Various statistical evidence says that excess liquidity is a long-term strategic mistake, however, in Italy (but also in the rest of continental Europe) cash is always king. If the pandemic comes, there is a chance that he will become emperor. The latest survey by Prospects for wealth, the survey carried out by Prometeia and Ipsos that monitors the relationship of Italians with their wealth, carried out between March 11 and 18 on a representative sample of families with more than 25 thousand euros of financial assets, is illuminating: today beyond 50% of private investors do not intend to take any risk in order to bring home a certain type of remuneration.
the amarcord
Only a year ago it was different: in the first quarter of 2019, Italians insensitive to the risk-return dilemma were several fewer and the size of their assets made the difference. Now the party from scratch (no game and no pay, Of course) increased 10 percentage points compared to the first quarter of 2019 and even 21 points if we consider only the richest part of the sample, the one with more than one hundred thousand euros. A year ago, only 29% of the more than one hundred thousand did not want to risk anything, compared to 42% of the total sample. Now, regardless of the odds, one in two families says: I prefer to stay liquid. At the end of the three-year period, in 2022, the cash race could generate an additional 105 billion in accounts and deposits: “According to our estimates, we are talking about an additional 69 billion compared to what could be expected at the end of 2019” , explains Sebastiano Mazzoni Perelli, director of Prometeia and head of the asset and wealth management area.
Liquid and poor? Not stated Despite the storm for Prometeia, the Italians’ investible wealth (calculated net of unlisted capital investments and TFR remaining in the company) is in any case destined to increase by 2022 by 225 billion ( + 2% approximately per year), increasing from 3,300 trillion little current to 3,500. Approximately half of these additional 225 billion will remain stationed in cash, while another 100 billion will increase policy assets, changing a little, Perelli highlights, a historical trend: Italians are poorly insured and this explains, in part, the accumulation of defensive liquidity. I don’t protect myself with ad hoc tools, but I save and save money. With any economic season (or almost). “The preference for more liquid products will only increase – explains Perelli -. Even if the image is different than in 2008 ». If we consider the world of financial intermediation, not that of the real economy, the crisis has to do with demand. In fact, banks no longer have the urgent need for liquidity that erupted in previous crises because there is the ECB, which buys government bonds and supports the system’s liquidity. Therefore, Perelli continues, there is no reason to replace the managed savings offering with direct deposits, despite having to contend with growth in household risk aversion.
Focus
In any case, Perelli continues, the approach to emergency health and the violent rise and fall of the markets (for now) have limited the escape of funds and administration. “According to our estimates, the decrease in inventories managed in the current year could reach sixty billion, an important figure but less than it would suffer if things were like in 2008 and 2011. In the first case, funds and management would lose 95, in the second more than 200 “, explains Perelli.
So could the savings industry be the weak link in the Covid-19 crisis? When asked, asked about Financial times A few days ago, Prometeia replied that, when it comes to the Italian market, we can talk about resilience. «The effect on the industry accounts, at the end of the three-year period, will be a general holding of income, thanks to an increase in volumes capable of offsetting the drop in unit margins, already in the waning phase in the years Mifid, which will bring return on industry assets from the current 90 to 84 cents for every 100 euros managed, “explains Perelli.
In short, a difficult but challenging scenario for both cash-drawn families and banks and consultants. Even before the pandemic, Perelli reveals, there was an increased demand for clients to serve, with technological and human support, from intermediaries. “We are witnessing a massive digitization, which will give the opportunity to those operators who, in the latter, have better directed their investments in the area of Digital Heritage Management to consolidate the relationship with customers and acquire new market shares,” he concludes.
