Fall rate and epidemic age: all the unknowns about the restart



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Phase 2now we are there. After May 1, Labor Day, the weekend and then the long-awaited Monday 4: reopening day and from restart Italy. Here, but is the country really ready to emerge from forced isolation?

Not so sure David Hume Foundationthat with one study Based on the numerical data of infections and deaths recorded daily by John Hopkins University, it raises more than a doubt about the real opportunity of the end of the confinement and therefore from the beginning of the second phase. Why? He soon said: because we are still far from zeroing infections and the fall rate of the infected decreases very slowly. In short, the curves are not flattened as we would like, to be really safe.

In Phase 2 of the restart, the academics asked themselves three questions, which are the following: “1) At what point are we on the path that should lead us to the goal of ‘zero contagion’? 2) What is the position of Italy compared to other countries? 3) How long could it take for the objective of zero contagion? is it focused on ours?.

Well, the first question that the experts answer saying that we are only 40% of the way, in the sense that “made 100 the number of new infected the day of peak, we still have to go down 40 steps to reach zero infection “.

Among us, Spain, France and France are better than us, while Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States are worse than us. If at first glance the position of Italy does not seem to be bad, the problems are fine if we consider two elements: theepidemic antiquity and the speed with which we traveled to the “zero contagion

Here are the antiquity data of the epidemic, that is, the number of days since the epidemic started, is worse for Italy than for any other country (except China and South Korea); while on the speed front towards “zero contagion” it is only 2.9%, “one of the lowest countries considered”, writes the Foundation, which describes as “impossible” the fact of saying how much time remains before reaching “zero infections”. In fact, academics end up writing that “We don’t know the speed at which Italy will travel the last leg of the road. We can only hope that, in the meantime, the race to zero contagion has continued. Although caution I would suggest that the reboot wait until daily deaths and new diagnosed cases approach zero. “.

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