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ROME We will reach a safety zone on the contagion front only in May, when it will be possible to restore the yellow band for the Regions. The reopening of the schools scheduled for after Easter will in any case present an epidemiological account. And the variants, increasingly aggressive and quick to spread, leave no alternatives. The viral load of the sick, also due to the effect of Covid mutations, has become much higher. Up to double. This is well explained by an analysis by Uscar, Lazio’s special swab units, which through 27 “sentinel” doctors detected and studied the “antigenic concentration” with quantitative swabs. Result: if until November the viral load, the contagion, was on average at level 40, now, explains Pier Luigi Bartoletti, head of Uscar, “it is double, just under 100. But we also have registered patients over 120” . .
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The center-right is pushing to reopen. Forza Italia, in particular the group’s leader in the Chamber, Roberto Occhiuto, affirms that the figures are still dramatic, but says that “the next government decree will have to provide a kind of coupon for mid-April, which perhaps, with numbers less dramatic, it can lead to a targeted reopening. ”Salvini and the Lega have in recent days been pushing for it to reopen in April. Draghi has decided to rely on the numbers, without betting.
This is the starting scenario, but what do the simulations predict today? Let’s start with yesterday: almost 20,000 new positive cases also on Sunday, despite the decrease in tampons over the weekend. The decrease in infected is barely perceptible compared to seven days earlier. And the goal of 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants weekly, indicated by experts as the true security zone, seems very far away, given that in the last report the national figure was almost five times higher. Last piece: we have another increase in beds. The analysis of the numbers that circulate both in the Ministry of Health and in the control room and in the CTS all reach the same conclusions: thinking about reopening today, restoring the yellow color, would mean dispersing the effects of the sacrifices made. To predict the trend of infections, scientists analyze the experience of 2020. Then, to end the closure, it was necessary to wait until May but today there are new elements, some play in our favor, others do not. In this spring of 2021 we have an extra weapon called vaccines, more than 9 million administrations have been carried out. And compared to a year ago there are 3.2 million Italians who have already tested positive: there are cases of reinfection, but fortunately they are not frequent. However, there are also factors that do not help: in 2020 even in spring the schools remained closed, after Easter primary and secondary school reopened also in the regions in the red range, which means many more people around and many more opportunities. for the virus. Circular.
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As the UK’s track record has dramatically shown us, France and Germany, the variants have worsened the picture compared to a year ago. English, in particular, has a transmission speed 30 percent higher than the original. One of the working hypotheses of the researchers is that this variant infects more also because the positivity lasts longer and therefore there are more days available to transmit the virus. There are Regions, starting with Abruzzo and Umbria (where the Brazilian variant is also strong) that have already experienced it on their own skin.
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The English mutation has been prevalent for at least a month. Today will be published the latest data from the survey of the Ministry of Health on the dissemination of variants. Already the precedent published at the beginning of March said that “the prevalence of the so-called English variant of the Sars-CoV-2 virus was 54.0%, with values that ranged between the individual regions between 0 and 93.3, while for the Brazilian was 4.3 percent (0-36.2) and that of the “South African” was 0.4 percent (0-2.9). ”The data being processed will say that the variant in English now represents between 70 and 80 percent of the positives found in Italy. Let us always remember: the vaccine is not overlooked, but according to the British experience it infects minors more easily (fortunately without disease) and this makes the reopening of schools are more insidious.
Lazio is the first region to analyze the viral load with quantitative tests together with the Uscar and the “sentinel” doctors of the territory. Therefore, it is not certain that Lazio is going through the worst situation, “we are the only ones who have analyzed it – sums up the head of the units, Bartoletti -. In addition to the double viral load, the symptoms have also changed: less and less “. patients lose their sense of smell and taste, very few now have conjunctivitis, while the positives increase with nausea and sore throat ».
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Covid, 3 million vaccines on the way for Easter
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