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When will I get vaccinated? The question that we all repeat ourselves every day like a mantra for months. As we know, since V-day of December 27, 2020 The anti-Covid vaccination campaign has started throughout Europe and also in Italy: first it was the health workers, then the RSA guests, following the police and the army, more than 80, and now teachers, caregivers and people. fragile.
But when will it be our turn? Assuming if you refuse a vaccine you cannot change, that is you can’t choose which one to doBased on the speed of vaccination administrations available to date and the strategic vaccination plan, it is possible, thanks to an algorithm, to estimate the vaccination times of Italian citizens.
The algorithm of The / Youtrend
SkyTg24 provides a tool created in collaboration with Quorum / Youtrend to try to understand when each of us will receive the vaccine, according to our condition and the Region to which we belong.
The creators of this special algorithm also clarify that the times shown are indicative and are derived from an estimated forecast based on currently available data on the administered vaccines, the Italian vaccination plan, the number of categories and other indications from the Ministry of Health.
here is the approximate vaccination schedule:
- Sanitary (1,495,000 people) December 2020 – February 2021
- Rsa (570,000 people) December 2020 – May 2021
- Over 80 (4,442,000 people) February 2021 – May 2021
- School / university staff (1,285,000 people) February 2021 – April 2021
- Armed forces (552,000 people) March 2021 – June 2021
- Penitentiaries (98,000 people) March 2021 – July 2021
- Community places (civil, religious) (200,000 people) March 2021 – July 2021
- Other essential services (2,167,000 people) March 2021 – July 2021
- Extremely vulnerable (2,084,000 people) April 2021 – June 2021
- 70-79 years (5,168,000 people) April 2021 – July 2021
- 60-69 years (6,664,000 people) April 2021 – August 2021
- Vulnerable under 60 years (4,000,000 people) June 2021 – August 2021
- Under 60 years (22,707,000 people) August 2021 – December 2021.
The calculation of the vaccinations described here is based exclusively on the data of the administrations carried out so far by category. In this way, from the data updated up to the last week, the algorithm calculates an updated projection of the vaccination date for each category.
However, the calculation currently does not take into account specific regional variables., which could be integrated at a later time and / or only for ongoing categories. Likewise, deliveries of vaccine doses are not considered., with the expectation that the administration is in any case slower than the delivery.
In module To know when we will be vaccinated, we are asked for some information, which is not, the inventors claim, saved in any way (you can also try it here):
– In which REGION do you reside or do you reside?
– Do you belong to any of these groups?
- Sanitary
- Rsa
- School and university staff
- Armed forces
- Penitentiaries
- Community places (civil, religious)
- Other essential services
- None of the above
– Enter your age
– Do you have other diseases that increase the clinical risk if you are infected with SARS-CoV2?
- Yes, I am extremely vulnerable
- If i’m vulnerable
- No, but I am a partner / caregiver of an extremely vulnerable person
- Do not.
The algorithm ofUniversity of Milan-Bicocca which is based on the frailty index
There’s also another algorithm with which it is possible to imagine when we will have to vaccinate and is the one developed byUniversity of Milan-Bicocca, which should be applied shortly in Lombardy for the vaccination campaign.
In the vaccination plan drawn up by the Government, not all the pathologies suffered by a person are considered, so their entire clinical profile, but rather this algorithm does. Experts call it Covid vulnerability score and assigns a score according to your clinical situation.
In practice, it will not necessarily be the turn of those who are older or have a more serious illness first, but it could be the turn of those who have various risk factors that make them more vulnerable to Covid.
How is it calculated? Based on the brittleness index: number that gathers the scores associated with the diseases suffered by each person. “This algorithm attributes to each citizen the degree of vulnerability to Covid,” explains Gianni Corrao, professor of medical statistics at Milano Bicocca who led the research. “The usefulness certainly also depends on the speed with which the vaccines are carried out, but it makes it possible to avoid hospitalizations, intubations and deaths. In any case, avoid assisted ventilation, and whoever has undergone it knows well what it is, already it would be a great result ”.
The model was based on data from the first wave., based on the more than 7.6 million beneficiaries of the National Health Service who as of February 21 had three characteristics: they were alive, they were between 18 and 79 years old and they were not guests of an RSA.
Evaluate the reliability of the algorithm The researchers used data from five regions, Lombardy, Valle d’Aosta, Marche, Puglia and Sicily, for a total of about 16 million people, a quarter of the Italian population. Health data obtained from doctor visits, hospitalizations, exemptions and more was then cross-checked. Finally, they identified which of the pathologies considered were associated with severe or fatal events due to Covid.
From this work they obtained the 23 diseases associated with increased risk, which were then weighted by associating them with a different value based on the greater possibility of having serious consequences (score from 1 to 10). Then each of these was given a score: the higher it is, the more risk there is. But the calculation also takes into account the date of birth, previous illnesses and the body mass index.
Of the diseases classified among the highest risk, 40% of the population suffers from them, but many people also have more than one: even the The comorbidity factor is essential for the final score.. The 23 diseases that weigh on the evolution of Covid infection include diabetes, vascular and respiratory diseases, liver cirrhosis, and chronic kidney disease.
Among the illnesses that the survey found to have led to hospitalizations and deaths, there are also some that are not on the ministry’s list that identifies the frail, such as mental disorders and illnesses that involve the use of chronic pain medications. . (opioids). Here are some examples:
- Insulin-treated diabetes: risk 9
- Psychosis: risk 7
- Coronary heart disease: risk 6
- Gout: risk 5
- Cancer, anemia and HIV: risk 4
- Epilepsy, depression, obesity, chronic kidney disease: risk 3.
The algorithm already adopted by Lombardy will be communicated to the Ministry of Health. If accepted by the Regions or at the national level, the researchers stress, it could be a revolution in the identification of citizens who have absolute priority over the vaccine, regardless of their age.
Lapp “Covid 19 vaccine for me”
Another tool to know when we will be vaccinated is theApplication “Covid 19 vaccine for me”, which also has a web version, born from the idea of a Berlin-based Italian developer Martin Sarsini. It is based on data published on the website of the Ministry of Health.
The calculator has 6 fields to fill in and you can try it here:
- age
- Region of residence
- profession (healthcare, social security workers, essential services or others)
- chronic pathologies
- residence in a retirement home
- rate of administration of the vaccine (it is necessary to select between the national vaccination plan, the average since the start of vaccinations and the average of the last 7 days. It is evident that the result changes substantially depending on the selected factor).
Once they are all full, the site generates a time window that indicates the period during which the vaccine could be received, with the most optimistic date and the furthest in time. At the moment, the time frame is still quite wide, but by gradually refining the criteria with the information available, it will be possible to narrow it down.
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