[ad_1]
Italy has reached the top of the third wave of Covid. The mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, from the Mauro Picone Institute for Calculus Applications of the National Research Council (Cnr-Iac) is convinced of this. In fact, the number of victims of the coronavirus in the last 24 hours rises again, reaching 386 deaths after the 300 registered during the weekend. But positive signs are beginning to show in the trend of the contagion curve. What gives hope is not so much the usual drop on Monday due to the drop in swabs over the weekend (13,846 new positives out of 169,196 molecular and antigenic tests, with a positivity rate of up to 8.1%), but the weekly trend of the data. , which seems to indicate a slowdown in the pandemic and a possible slight reduction in infections for the next few days, although with strong differences between regions.
Red zone, restrictions stop infections: but those who left first are better
The declarations
“Analysis of the curve – said Sebastiani – of the ratio of positives to molecular swabs at the national level, through the weekly percentage difference, shows that last week the peak was reached,” says Sebastiani. A similar situation, it seems, also for the RT curve, calculated from the data on the incidence of the first symptoms, while there is a slowdown in the growth of the curve for the number of Covid-19 patients admitted to intensive care . “I think these positive results are due to the restrictive measures in recent weeks,” Sebastiani observes.
Covid, a new peak of infections
And give
The epidemiologist Stefania Salmaso is also of the same opinion, commenting on the analyzes of the Italian Association of Epidemiology prepared and published with the Made system (Monitoring and Analysis of Epidemic Data): “The platform, updated daily with Civil Protection data, allows us to make projections at 7 and 14 days that take into account the current trend, in the absence of the effects of specific countermeasures such as color changes in the Regions or accelerations in the campaign. of vaccination »explains Salmasoso.
Covid, 400 positives less in a week. Since the start of the pandemic, 1205 deaths. Magione does not reopen schools
In the last week, the RDt diagnostic replication index (which measures the growth in the number of new cases, regardless of the clinical picture) has fallen below 1 at the national level, a sign that “the growth rate of the epidemic is has slowed down. ” and the situation seems to be heading towards a stabilization and a slight decrease in the next 7 days ».
The region-by-region curve
Obviously, those who took the most restrictive measures first are rewarded. With the RDt below 1, a decrease in new positives is expected in Abruzzo, Campania, Lombardy, Marche, Emilia Romagna, Molise, Umbria, the autonomous provinces of Bolzano and Trento. An increase in diagnoses is expected next week in the other 12 Regions with RDT above 1: the situation could accelerate especially in Calabria, Sicily, Liguria and Valle d’Aosta. These variations will inevitably be reflected in the use of intensive care units, currently very heterogeneous according to Sebastiani’s analysis. We will have to wait a little longer to appreciate the impact on deaths: although the incidence has decreased slightly, also due to vaccinations of those over 80, the number of daily victims is not yet destined to decrease in the coming days “, He said to the rebound in infections in recent weeks, “concludes the epidemiologist.
Last updated: 20:10 © REPRODUCTION RESERVED
[ad_2]
