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From mid April Positive for coronavirus should increase in 8 Italian regions. This is predicted by an algorithm developed by statistician Livio Fenga. Who stated: “This is a model based on the combination of forecasts and from which, Fenga points out, there is an increase in positive cases in regions that we could consider as special surveillance”, says Fenga. Below is the scenario that awaits us in a month, if the algorithm models are confirmed.
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The virtuous regions
According to the algorithm, Sicily, Umbria and Sardinia contrast with the 8 regions exposed to new Covid peaks. In Sardinia and Umbria, in particular, for mid-April a decrease in new cases is expected from 5,905 to 3,937 in 30. According to the expert, this could be a consequence of the current containment measures; furthermore, “it is probable that by the end of March the positive cases in Sicily will fall below 10,000”, says Fenga. Also in Lazio there are already the first positive signs. Which in two weeks could take the region out of the red zone. “In Lazio -continues Fenga- there are signs that could lead to the exit of the red zone in the space of two weeks, going from 54,371 cases detected on March 16 to 44,294 scheduled for mid-April.”
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The regions most at risk
Since the regions “Special guards” The Campania model stands out, which should go from 98,073 positives – registered in total until March 16 – to about 127,317 expected for mid-April. “Very substantial growth rates” are also expected in Calabria, Puglia, Tuscany, Emilia Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lombardy and Piedmont. Although «the model is not designed – concludes the statistician Livio Fenga – to capture the variants, but to make predictions, the feeling is that the variants are playing an important role since it is not uncommon to detect, observing the dynamic structure of the equations, phenomena attributable to sudden increases in the number of positives. “The model indicates, for example, that in Campania the total number of positives rose from 98,073 on April 16 to 127,317 in mid-April; in Emilia Romagna from 68,192 to 116,185, in Lombardy from 95,776 to 147,552 and Puglia from 39,214 to 50,039.
Campania, trips to second homes are prohibited. In Sardinia there is an “assault” alarm from the red zone
Last updated: 18:49
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