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The epidemic has changed pace as it has spread to children. Vaccinations are delayed, infections increase. The only tactic is to limit contacts between people, there is no choice. a one-way street indicated by the epidemiologist Stefania salmaso.
Won’t the virus slow down without a new squeeze?
The evidence says so. In one year we have learned a lot and the decisive element is the mobility of people. All restrictions aim to limit it. the emergency shutdown A year ago it was very effective, but we know that it is an extreme measure, with significant social and economic costs.
The most effective and least socially painful tactic?
Limit the areas where there are infections as much as possible, but it is clear that we often look for infections and only the most severe restrictions work. If you want to follow this less punitive tactic for citizens, it serves for an active local surveillance, aimed at timely interventions, not always feasible..
What do you think of the hypothesis of closed weekends?
Measures of this type can be useful to communicate more clearly that we must not move, that the situation is serious. They are sustainable for a limited time. We should have at least a perspective of how long to keep making sacrifices, based on vaccine progression. Unfortunately, there is still no roadmap with the vaccination coverage achieved and to be achieved and the relative times.
What is the budget for a year of restrictions?
In terms of health, we have not only paid the price of Covid-19, but we have also recorded the damages due to delays in access to treatment for other diseases or even prevention. We had to leave thousands behind put on screen for early diagnosis of some forms of cancer and vaccination of many children. The boys were very involved in both education and social life..
Compared to the rest of Europe, has Italy fared better or worse?
There are no winners or losers. There have been pandemic waves from one country to another. In the total count of cases in the EU, Italy ranks third after France and Spain, but we have recorded the highest number of victims. Restrictions similar to those adopted in Italy have been adopted everywhere and even the less favorable countries have changed course. Going better or worse than other countries does not guarantee the future: new variants are continually identified and infections circulate between countries.
What does the data collected by the Italian Association of Epidemiology say?
The spread of infections is not homogeneous in population subgroups, it differs in age and behavior. Since last November, the association has received weekly data from numerous regions, for a total of 51 million Italians. We quickly documented the increase in incidence among the elderly, which then explained the increase in deaths in January and February, and recently we noted the increase in incidence among children in kindergarten and elementary school. A true change of pace in the pandemic attributable to the variants.
If the epidemic grows, is the vaccination strategy in danger of being compromised?
The current strategy for the prevention of serious cases and deaths. If the number of pandemics increases, it will take longer to see the effect of the vaccination schedule. It is important to administer the largest number of doses. Today, compared to the 15 million expected for the first quarter, a little more than 5 million have been administered.
March 9, 2021 (change March 9, 2021 | 22:35)
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