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Bologna, February 18, 2021 – The variants are the real sparuacchio of third wave of coronavirus: This is where the tracking and color change of the regions for the next week. First, English, which has an 18% incidence in all new covid cases (but the data could be underestimated), then that South African, that Brazilian (no doubt present in Umbria and Tuscany, but yesterday Zaia explained that the first case was also found in Veneto). If the advance of these mutations is not formed, in a few weeks they can become prevalent, with all doubts about the efficacy of the vaccines, at least in comparison with the South African and Brazilian ones. Tomorrow the new ordinances in colors based on the data transmitted to the ministry today, but the idea is to combine this instrument with the increasingly widespread use of red microzones to contain sprouts.
Variants: ISS survey
For this reason, the ISS (Higher Institute of Health) has begun a survey of the variants that will be carried out, according to the circular of the Ministry of Health, on a total of 1,058 positive samples to SarsCov2. If they consider 4 macro areas: Northwest, Northeast, Center, South and Islands. The number of samples for each Autonomous Region or province is defined on the basis of the percentage of cases notified on 2/16/2021 of the total cases notified in macro areas: 42 Abruzzo, 7 Basilicata, 11 Calabria, 95 Campania, 97 Emilia Romagna , 27 Friuli Venezia Giulia, 123 Lazio, 22 Liguria, 167 Lombardy, 38 Marche, 1 Molise, 57 Bolzano, 20 Trento, 76 Piedmont, 58 Puglia, 6 Sardinia, 53 Sicily, 61 Tuscany, 32 Umbria, 1 Valle d’Aosta, 64 Veneto.
The English variant arrives in San Marino where vaccines are still missing
Orange zone: here are the regions at risk
In the near future, an orange cloud is hovering over Italy: there are many Regions that are at risk of moving to a more restrictive regime and the map of almost all yellow will turn almost all orange. Emilia-Romagna, despite the positive data from the last two bulletins, seems destined (as President Stefano Bonaccini has suggested) to tighter restrictions also because theRt index it creeps upwards from an area like the province of Bologna where it has been over 1 days and where there are several foci also in the province, starting from the Imola area.
Even the Marks see orange, despite the attempt to prevent it launched by Governor Francesco Acquaroli who banned the incoming and outgoing borders of the province of Ancona (but did not establish a red zone with the closing of the shops) until the night of Saturday. .
Towards the passage from the yellow to the orange zone also for the Lazio, the Friuli Venezia Giulia and the Piedmont. Confirmation of orange in sight for Liguria, Umbria, province of Trento me Tuscany. Lombardy is at stake, but it risks a lot.
Red zone
Abruzzo might even turn red, along with the province of Bolzano.
White zone
The only positive note: the Aosta Valley, with a strong Rt and a very low incidence of cases, could even move to the white zone, with gyms and operating pools, cinemas and open theaters.
The red microzones
Close and circumscribe: this is the reasoning that guides the increasingly widespread institution of red microzones in the Umbrian model that has already spread to Lombardy. These are areas where the schools are closed (students at 100% Dad), as well as all stores: they remain open only food, pharmacies, tobacconists and kiosks, bars and restaurants only home deliveries are open, as was the case during the close of last year. It is forbidden to leave the house except for the famous “proven needs”. The novelty is that it is thought that these microzones will spread not only to the areas where the outbreak broke out, but also to those close. Nothing to do with the ordinance taken for Ancona: where it is only forbidden to enter and leave the province, but which does not provide for any closing of shops. Close and circumscribe before the situation gets out of hand.
Luca Zaia’s Veneto is out of danger – certify the data of the Gimbe foundation -: in the week of February 10 to 16 all the indicators improved compared to the previous week. Below the saturation threshold, in particular, beds in the medical and intensive care area occupied by Covid-19 patients. The percentage of the population of Veneto that has completed the vaccination cycle is equal to 2.22% (2.18% of the national average); the percentage of doses of vaccines administered to “non-health personnel” is equal to 15%, that administered to “more than 80” is equal to 5%.
Current positives increase in 12 regions
Weekly Sars-Cov-2 infections are, nationwide, more or less stable but in 17 provinces see an increase of more than 5%, favored “by the circulation of new variants”. This is what the new follow-up of the Gimbe Foundation reveals, which launches an appeal to the Draghi Government: “A change of pace is needed because, accomplices of the variants, it is impossible to think of turning the curve with current mitigation measures and relying only on the vaccination campaign “which, moreover, is late, even if some regions like Emilia Romagna have given the green light to the use of AstraZeneca”.
The follow-up of the week 10-16 February 2021, compared to the previous one, shows decreasing data: a stable number of new cases (84,272 versus 84,711, equal to -0.5%), the currently positive cases decreased (393,686 versus 413,967, or -4.9%), as did people in home isolation (373,149 versus 392,312, equal to -4.9%), hospitalizations with symptoms (18,463 versus 19,512, equal to -5.4%), intensive care (2,074 versus 2,143, equal to -3.2%) and, above all, deaths (2,169 versus to 2,658, equal to -18%).
Also this week – says Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation – the new cases show no signs of abating. And looking at regional data, there are signs of an increase, favored by the circulation of new variants. Of course, in 12 Regions the currently positive cases per 100,000 inhabitants are increasing with respect to the previous week and the percentage of increase in cases in the last 7 days exceeds 5% in 17 Provinces. If the new executive maintains the strategy based on colors “with the sole objective of containing the overload of hospitals – concludes Cartabellotta – we must accept the exhausting stop & go of the last months at least for all of 2021”.
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