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After weeks of announced goals and promised numbers far beyond the real possibilities, the public announcement of the Deputy Minister of Health Pierpaolo Sileri was the first big performance of the vaccination campaign: until the contrary is communicated, the plan is not by in front. Just enough time to be able to administer the second doses to those who have already received the first injection and then the race stops, postponing vaccines for the elderly over 80, among the subjects with the highest risk of contagion by Coronavirus, 4 weeks. Just under 24 hours after the announcement, the deputy minister was quick to reassure the country by anticipating a possible Pfizer return at the pace set in the coming weeks. But with the now little faith in the pharmaceutical giant, the country without certainty stands still for now.
“The dose reductions reported by Pfizer and Astrazeneca will postpone the expected vaccination times for more than 80 years by approximately four weeks and approximately 6 to 8 weeks for the rest of the population.” From what Sileri announced, it would have been entirely Pfizer’s fault. But what the government figures have been telling us for weeks is that the plan would not have been honored anyway. And this is how the delays of the big pharmaceuticals appear today as the best fig leaf to hide to justify a problem that was present even before the latest slowdowns.
The accounts don’t blame Pfizer
Before the campaign was undermined by delays and announcements of nearly half the deliveries on multiple occasions Open had reiterated that with the doses agreed so far (at a regular rate) and with a certain average daily injections, the country would not be able to vaccinate 6.5 million people within the first quarter, contrary to what was promised. Let’s try to recap:
The supply problem
From the figures reported in the Italian vaccination calendar, the total of priority categories for the first quarter of 2021 amounts to almost 6 and a half million from the people. The sum of health workers (1,404,037), RSA guests / workers (570,287) and more than 80 (4.4 million). In light of the supplies that should have reached Italy, thus excluding delays and reductions, the accounts tell us that the first phase would not have been respected: 6 millions and a half of people is the same 13 million dose to be injected, considering the double inoculation necessary to guarantee the complete immunity promised by the test data. 95% according to Pfizer, 94.1% for Moderna.
The doses that, without slowing down, Pfizer should have guaranteed Italy in the first quarter are 8,794 millions. Those guaranteed by Moderna 1.3 millions. In everything they do 10,094. With the unknown Astrazeneca, in which the country has lived since the first days of the vaccination campaign, being able to immunize 6.5 millions people was impossible before the slowdowns. In fact, the appeal would have been lacking 3 millions doses, which the government should have hoped to obtain from new agreements or the approval of some other vaccine.
The hope placed in Astrazeneca could have saved things with approximately 16 million of purchased doses. But even before the announcement of the supply cut to the 60%, the big problem was represented by the possible authorization limit only for the 55, finally decided by Ema. Now it seems that the clause has been avoided but everything will have to be verified on January 29.
Almost 4 million people excluded from the first phase: and even here the delays have nothing to do with it
Trying to calculate the consistency of the objectives that the government had set in terms of times and not just doses, also in this case we see how the daily rate of administration guaranteed by the country would not have been able to respect the promises, regardless of the slowdowns from Pfizer. Calculation of the number of administrations of 31 December, the day the doses of Pfizer were distributed throughout the national territory, until the date of 18 January, that is, before the delays, it was possible to record an average of approximately 60 thousand injections per day (now reduced to 54 thousand).
So quickly we would have reached the end of March with 7.6 million of injections missing on appeal. And therefore with 3.8 million of people for whom even the first administration would have been at risk. That is, almost everyone is over 80. And again: with 60 thousand injections per day, for i 3.8 million people who would not receive the first dose at the end of the first trimester, the administration of the first dose would have ended at the end of May. With full immunity (first and second doses) at that time it is expected not before the end of July. In fact, dividing i 7.6 million doses excluded from the first phase for the average of 60 thousand each day we will see that more would be needed 100 days to ensure double administration to 3.8 millions of people.
The pace necessary to ensure a complete defense to all subjects in the first quarter would have been around 150/155 thousand doses per day. A number not present on the vaccination campaign roadmap even before the announced slowdowns. Now the plan slows down even more with a daily average of 54 thousand injections per day. But it is the slowdown of a vaccination plan already committed from the beginning, with the considerable gap between the guaranteed resources and the promises made.
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