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The average Italian RT falls below 1 and the situation in the Regions is improving everywhere. Only Sardinia, according to the monitoring of the control room, progresses towards the transition from yellow to orange. Lombardy also passes through the same area but not for this week’s data but for the previous one. It had turned red but there was an error and instead it was inserted into the orange zone, where it will now enter. On the 20th, it sent an adjustment to last week’s numbers that pushes the Rt from 1.4 to 0.88.
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After five consecutive weeks of increasing value, the contagion rate falls. Last Friday it reached 1.09, today it is 0.97. Therefore, it is below the threshold considered risk. We are probably witnessing the effect of reducing contagion from the closings of the Christmas period, when Italy was almost always the red zone, with some orange days.
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The situation in the Regions
Regarding the Regions, Campania, Tuscany, Basilicata, Molise, the Province of Trento remain in the yellow zone, while Sardinia is destined to change color. In orange, Abruzzo, Calabria, Emilia, Friuli, Lazio, Liguria, Marche, Piedmont, Puglia, Umbria, Val d’Aosta are confirmed. Veneto should also remain in the same situation, but it will be understood in the next few hours. The red ones are instead Lombardy, the province of Bolzano and Sicily.
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In general, RT is present in all local situations, as well as risk. Precisely for this reason, only one Region sees a worsening of the scenario. Above 1, considering only the lower of the two used to calculate the average, there are only Puglia (with 1.06, which is in line with the orange zone it is already in) and Sicilia with 1.23. The high risk is the province of Bolzano, Sicily, Umbria and Sardinia, which for this reason turns orange. All other regions this week have a yellow status. They stay where they are because you have to stay with the best data for two weeks before moving to an area with fewer restrictions.
Controversy with Lombardy
The control room has never been so long, that today it started at 12.30 pm and was updated at 16. The Lombardy issue has extended the time, where among other things some mayors have asked that their cities be taken out of the red zone. The Region has sent a request to rectify the data from last week that would change the Rt from 1.4 to less than 1 but with high risk and therefore are from the orange zone. The experts accepted the proposal and therefore the Region led by Attilio Fontana is moving towards the transition to Orange. This week, like almost all of them, you would have yellow data, but the rules established by the Dpcm require that you stay at least two weeks in a color before you can switch to less heavy measurements. Now no one wants to take responsibility for last week’s mistake. The numbers on which the monitoring is based are communicated and certified by the Regions themselves. The mistake, therefore, could be precisely the Lombard councilor but Fontana rejects the accusations and returns the ball to Roma. In any case, the control room confirmed today, there was an error.
And in the report on the Lombardy case prepared by the Higher Institute of Health it is explained that on January 20 the Region sent an update of the data and a “correction also related to the week of January 4 to 10”. In particular, the number of cases in which the date of onset of symptoms is reported has been modified and among these those for which the clinical status is indicated. The change is significant because the RT is calculated precisely on the symptomatic. Well, those for whom the date of onset of symptoms is indicated in the rectification have gone from 419,362 per 100,000 inhabitants to 414,487. Meanwhile, symptomatic patients decreased from 185,292 to 167,638 and asymptomatic patients increased (from 234,070 to 246,849). The absolute changes considerably, since the people included in the calculation of the RT, that is, the people who had symptoms between December 15 and 30, go from 14,180 of last week’s communication to 4,918 of this . Thus, the RT falls from 1.4 to 0.88. And the Region should be considered orange because it still has a high risk.
Lombardy Region: “No correction, but update”
“There is no request for rectification, but a necessary update of a ‘track field’, track that is sent daily to the Istituto Superiore di Sanità”. This was written in a note from the Lombardy region. “Action, shared with the Istituto Superiore di Sanità – the note continues – made necessary due to an anomaly in the algorithm used by the ISS to extract data for the calculation of RT, reported by the department to the Regional Welfare and shared with Rome “.
Experts: “Phase still delicate”
The situation, writes the control room, “remains in a delicate phase and a further rapid increase in the number of cases is possible in the coming weeks if mitigation measures are not rigorously maintained at both the national and regional levels. This trend at the national level. in fact, strong interregional variations underlie, with some Regions where the absolute number of patients hospitalized in the critical area and the relative impact, combined with the high incidence, still impose incisive restrictive measures ”.
The experts always observe “a slight decrease in the incidence at the national level in the last 14 days, that is, 339.24 cases per 100,000 inhabitants between January 4 and 17 compared to 368 from December 28 to January 10 “. However, “the incidence throughout the territory is still far from levels that would allow to fully reestablish the identification of cases and the tracing of their contacts throughout the national territory. The health service showed the first signs of criticality when the value in the a national level, it exceeded 50 cases per 100,000 in seven days and a criticality of the maintenance of services with high incidences ”.
Also in the report we observe “a decrease in the risk of an uncontrolled and unmanageable epidemic in the country mainly due to a decrease in the probability of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 but in a context in which the impact on health services still high in most regions / HAPPs. ” There are 9 regions where the risk of an uncontrolled epidemic persists.
