[ad_1]
Starts from 142, you arrive easily 152, so with a good chance 157/158. Then it becomes more complex. After having passed, as announced, the rock of Montecitorio, Giuseppe Conte and the rest of the government they focus on Madama Palace. And if in the House the resolution in favor of the prime minister has gained confidence with an absolute majority, in the Senate the issue is more complicated. Much will also depend on the senators present, 315 elected and 6 for life. The total is 321 and therefore to have an absolute majority it would be necessary 161 votes. The conditional is essential: Giorgio NapolitanoFor example, he has not participated in the works for a long time for health reasons. Another senator for life like Renzo Piano: absences that clearly lower the quorum. Like that of Sandro Biasotti, senator of Forza Italia who will not be in the Chamber for “a serious duel”, as he told the party of Silvio Berlusconi. Without considering that, with the new regulation that does not calculate abstentions among those who are against, the government only needs to take one more vote than No in order not to be discouraged: pass the Senate exam with a relative majority. This hypothesis would open a political debate but would give the executive more time to expand the majority. But let’s go in order.
Votes in favor: at least 152 – Armed with an abacus, the prime minister can consider how Yes, sure to your government I 35 votes of Democratic party ei 92 of the 5 star movement. To these must be added the 6th of Free and equal (who are part of the Mixed group), 7/8 votes from 9 group members Autonomy: the eighth is Neapolitan, the ninth other senator for life Elena Cattaneo, whose support for the government is very likely. Then there is the vote of Liliana Segre, who announced his yes to Gad Lerner at the Daily occurrence: we start from 142. And here we begin to draw from the rest of the Mixed group: in total it has 29 members, minus the six of Leu and Segre are 22. As announced, the Prime Minister’s exponents must vote Maie, the movement of Italians abroad who have recently been constituted as a separate component precisely in key pro-Conte: I am the undersecretary Ricardo Merlo, Adriano Cario, Raffaele fantetti, Saverio De Bonis me Maurizio Buccarella. The Maie wears the total votes in favor of 147. He then announced his vote in favor of the majority at fattoquotidiano.it l’ex Pd Tommaso Cerno, which will be expressed as Sandro Ruotolo, another journalist chosen by the center left. You’ve been voting for trust in Conte for some time, so, Sandra lonardo, that’s the wife of Clemente Mastella. And we are a 150, it converts into 152 with two senators for life probably given in favor. Mario monti He said that he will choose how to vote only after having listened to the prime minister in the classroom, but defined a government crisis as incomprehensible: “These are things that always lead the rest of Europe and the world to distrust when they look at Italy.” Words that enter the former prime minister in the list of “builders”. A list that also belongs to Carlo Rubbia, often absent from Palazzo Madama but who should participate in the works for the occasion.
The votes in doubt, those against, the knot of the Renzianos … From here the questions begin. In the Mixed, in fact, there are a number of former 5 stars who will decide only at the last minute what to do. I am Gregorio De Falco, Lelio Ciampolillo, Tiziana Drago, Luigi di marzio me Mario Michele Giarrusso. There are five votes that would bring the total of Yes to Conte a quota 157. Then there is another former grillina, Marinella Pacifico, who anticipated his no but what rumors of corridor give by possible surprise. In this case, therefore, there would not be three / four senators for the quorum (depending on whether it is set at 160 or 161): but they are votes that are not yet on the eve. It will be necessary to understand, for example, how the 18 senators of Alive italy. Riccardo nencini, the socialist who allowed a Matteo renzi to have his autonomous group at Palazzo Madama, he was the first to uncheck. “Who has greater responsibilities he is called to exercise them, escaping from the logic of the duelists and keeping firm the call of the President of the Republic. We are among the builders, ”he said. What does that mean? Who will vote in favor or abstain as the other Renzians have announced? And in living Italy, in the end, will other positions arise in disagreement with the rupture, as has been raised in recent days? In this case, in addition to Nencini, among the Renzianos there are at least four senators who could help the majority: Leonardo Grimani, Eugenio Comincini, Annamaria Parente, Vincenzo Carbone. Instead, the other 7 members of the Mixed group should vote No: they are Emma bonino, the three of Let’s change – Massimo Berruti, Gaetano Quagliariello and Paolo Romani – the former dem Matteo richetti and the old M5 Gianluigi Paragone me Carlo Martelli. They join the opposition votes, that is, the 19 senators from Brothers from Italy, to 63 of League and there are 54 di Go Italy. The total number of votes “against” would be 143. Even there the conditional is mandatory: it will be necessary to understand, in fact, if all Berlusconians will vote against or if someone will finally choose the path of abstention.
Relative majority and variable abstention – For the moment, therefore, the government can count on 152 votes that can grow to 157/158: more, at present, the pro-Conte front seems unable to go. A result that does not guarantee an absolute majority but only that relative: that is enough, in any case, to avoid distrust of the government. The file is full of precedent: Governments in office without a quorum are full First Republic. However, it is clear that in this condition the executive would have to face a political problem: governing with fragile numbers and, again in theory, easily defeated. However, it would top the rock of Palazzo Madama, buying time to shore up the numbers later. In practice, avoiding mistrust would mean going through the first part of the crisis unscathed. Without considering that in Palazzo Madama there is another variable: the weight of the abstained. It is one thing to have a relative majority with 156 yes, 143 against and 18 abstentions (all from Italy alive). Another is if the number of No were lowered, with an opposition that would opt for abstention.
[ad_2]
