The premier yields: to Count ter, waiting for the white semester

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The week of the Epiphany, which is expected to be decisive for the solution of the progressive crisis of the government, reopens with the fixed image of the tug of war between Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. But something is moving under the radar. And at least a couple of scenarios have left the scene: that of early voting, evoked in the last hours by the prime minister himself in private conversations that accompanied him with the “threat” of presenting a personal list that would end up taking away the water from the mills of a tired M5 but also of the Pd, and that of the count in the Chamber to isolate Renzi with the help of an indeterminate patrol of “managers” explicitly indicated by the premier himself during the end of the year press conference (” if the confidence of a party is lost, I will contact Parliament “).

Expired scenarios: early voting and “responsible” operation

Early voting, although duly indicated by the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella as a possible result of a crisis in the dark, has never been a credible solution in the eyes of political duelists and majority parties: a vote in the entire territory is unimaginable. at the national level in the midst of a pandemic, and especially the risk of victory for the sovereign right is too high just as the approximately 200,000 million euros from the Recovery Fund arrive from Brussels. As for the “responsible”, the Count himself had to take note of the infeasibility of the operation. Not only because the niet of the UDC and the formation change! of Giovanni Toti (5 senators in total) has reduced the available votes to less than 10 (few to replace the 18 senators from Italia Viva), but also and above all because the Democratic Party has made it clear to Conte that it is not willing to follow him on this Road and Mattarella himself has made it clear that he does not like solutions with chosen majorities.

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The prices of a count are growing

So there are basically two options, as Renzi repeats in these hours in conversations with his parents: a Conteter resulting from a serious reorganization with important changes of boxes or another prime minister supported by the same majority in case Conte continues to establish himself. Only in the background remains the hypothesis of a national unity government presided over by an authorized third person such as Mario Draghi. And it is clear that both the prime minister and the two largest parties in the coalition, M5 and Pd, are currently working on the first solution. “It is the least traumatic, most manageable and most logical solution,” says a powerful Democratic Party minister. And the words of the Chancellor and de facto leader of the Five Stars Luigi Di Maio indicate that even the Prime Minister’s party is looking at the Count ter’s solution: “On the authority delegated to the secret services and on the Cybersecurity Foundation squares, we are adults, a nation like Italy cannot be held hostage to these things.

Conte’s concessions: from the secret services to (perhaps) the Month

The secret services, in fact. Question strongly posed by both the Democratic Party and Renzi and until two days ago rejected by Conte, who appeared publicly and privately willing to stay in power. The novelty of the last hours is precisely the will to transfer the proxy (the hypotheses are Emanule Fiano -name also appreciated by Renzi- or Michele Bordo, both of the Pd). As for the Cybersecurity Foundation, which Democrats and Renzianos do not like, it seems to have disappeared from the new draft of the Recovery plan prepared by the Minister of Economy Roberto Gualtieri to summarize the proposals for change received from all the majority parties. Starting with Italia Viva, which presented a 63-point memorandum in recent days. The latest sign of opening of the prime minister is the hypothesis of activating the M5 in favor of the M5 to take at least part of the 36 billion loans for the health emergency available to Italy. With these openings on the issues raised, Renzi himself could emerge more than worthy of the crisis without making it appear that he only intended to have an extra position as minister (or Ettore Rosato or himself).

A blank buffer before the semester?

It remains to be seen whether, in the event of a successful outcome for a count yet to be verified, the resulting political balance, with a very reduced prime minister and almost “commissariat” on the part of the parties, will be able to withstand the difficult months that await the country between health emergency and consequent economic emergency. Or if it will be just a “patch” destined to be broken during the blank semester that precedes the end of the presidential term, when by Constitution the Head of State cannot dissolve the Chambers, determining a formal “free all”.