[ad_1]
The Conte government is studying a provision that extends the restrictions of the red, orange and yellow zone to all of Italy between January 7 and 15, the date on which decree 172/2020 and 158/2020 respectively with Dpcm 3 will expire from December. This is one of the hypotheses discussed in the meeting between Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and the heads of delegation of the majority that supports the executive. It is not excluded that this provision contains measures that will be applied at the national level, that is, going beyond the zone system.
A new Dpcm, a decree law or an ordinance for the whole of Italy: the bans from 7 to 15 January
The measure could be a ministerial decree or an ordinance of the Ministry of Health or another decree law such as the one that gave rise to the Christmas restrictions. One of the hypotheses that the government is examining is that on the weekend of January 9 and 10 the measures planned for the orange zone will be in force throughout Italy, that is, the closure of bars and restaurants even for lunch (the opening will be allowed only for take-out and home delivery) while from January 7 to 15, movement between regions will be allowed only for work, health or need and urgency reasons. The summit, which was held by videoconference, was also attended by the ministers of Regional Affairs, Francesco Boccia, and of Health, Roberto Speranza. The Minister of Health should now see the Scientific Technical Committee and the members of the Benessere Italia Control Room Benessere Italia. In any case, the government plans to maintain the exemption for the two guests of the house (family or friends) until January 15. In summary, therefore, for now the government plans:
- introduce the orange zone on the weekend between 9 and 10 January throughout Italy;
- enact additional restrictions in addition to the yellow zone (the so-called “reinforced yellow zone” on days 7-15;
- modify the indicators based on which the Ministry of Health declares the zones in the regions making them more strict.
The problem to be solved is precisely what legislative measure to launch in the next few hours for the new prohibitions that will remain in force until the expiration of Decree No. 158/2020. In the morning the possibility of launching a “reinforced” yellow zone throughout Italy with a red or orange zone was assumed during the weekend. That is, from Monday to Friday, keep the restrictions of the yellow zone and then close every Saturday and Sunday, keeping according to the options the possibility of moving within the municipalities and shops (except bars and restaurants) open in the last two days of the week. . In any case, Prime Minister Conte has ensured the resumption of teaching in the presence of secondary schools from January 7: postponing the date of return to school was a request of the Regions. And according to some rumors, the government is working on the revision of the indicators that decide the zones for the regions, lowering that of the orange and red zones. This would bring Veneto, Liguria and Calabria into the orange zone according to last week’s numbers.
“Italy in the orange zone on the weekend of January 9-10”
The meeting between the government and the heads of delegation began shortly before 1:00 p.m. and there were representatives of the Democratic Party Dario Franceschini, of Italy Viva Teresa Bellanova, of the Alfonso Bonafede 5-Star Movement and of Liberi e Uguali Roberto Speranza. Minister Bellanova launched into the attack criticizing the vaccination plan and supplies: “Once again today we see the insufficiency of the health system, sanctioned by the need to activate the orange or red Regions with Rt thresholds lower than indicated above to avoid more critical problems. And there is an insufficiency and lack of clarity in the vaccination plan. If you want to get out of this impasse by giving a clear message to citizens, there is only one way: continue the timely monitoring and clarify the plan. The only message that remains at home it is evident that psychologically and economically for citizens it is no longer enough. Faced with a sacrifice that we ask of the people, we must give certainty. And from the data that I read, I still see few. “Meanwhile, the Bulletin Today’s Civil Protection reports higher numbers than yesterday:
- 14,245 infected
- 347 dead
- 14746 cured
Intensive care units increased by fourteen and 127 more hospitalizations. The number of swabs made is 102,974 and therefore the positivity rate today is 13.8%, or -3.8% compared to yesterday. Physicist Roberto Battiston has calculated that the average Rt contagion index in Italy has increased even more in recent days to reach 0.99: “The identification of the red, yellow and orange areas starts from the value of the Rt index, but it does not consider the degree of development of the epidemic in the area, “observes Battiston.” Instead, the number of positive cases in the region should be included in the assessment because they are the two values that together determine how fast the epidemic can spread with the risk of saturating the territorial health system “. Remember that the higher the Rt value, the greater the risk of spreading the epidemic. If, on the other hand, the value of Rt is less than 1, this means that the epidemic can be more easily contained.
Restrictions throughout Italy (even in the yellow zone regions)
Therefore, the most likely hypothesis to date is to extend the restrictions to all of Italy. The alternative is to declare the red or orange zone in some regions: the candidates are those with the highest Rt contagion rate, namely Veneto, Liguria and Calabria, followed by Lombardy, Puglia and Basilicata. But the figures for these territories, although they are growing, do not reflect those of the monitoring indicators of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità and the Ministry of Health, so it is not clear how the Minister of Health could act without lending his side to any appeal to regional administrative courts that could invalidate the ordinances. The hypothesis of changing the reference parameters to declare the yellow, orange and red zones, which has been mentioned in the newspapers in recent days, would take time and in any case would encounter opposition from the Regions. According to government plans, the Rt threshold that activates the orange band would be reduced to 1 (instead of the current 1.25) while for the red band it would be enough to reach an Rt equal to 1.25 (instead of the current 1 , fifty). In the latest ISS report it was emphasized that:
- the epidemic in Italy remains “still serious due to a high impact on welfare services”;
- In the period from December 8 to 21, 2020, the average transmissibility index Rt calculated in symptomatic cases was equal to 0.93 (range 0.89 – 1.02), increasing slightly in the last three weeks;
- three regions / PPAA (Veneto, Liguria, Calabria) have a punctual Rt greater than 1, therefore, compatible with a type 2 scenario;
- another 3 (Basilicata, Lombardia and Puglia) exceed it in the average value;
- another three are nearby (Emilia-Romagna, Friuli-Venezia Giulia and Marche);
The type 2 scenario (in total there are 4, explained here) evokes a “situation of sustained and generalized transmissibility but manageable by the health system in the short-medium term, with regional values of Rt included in a systematic and significant way between Rt = 1 and Rt = 1.25 (that is, with estimates of the 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of Rt between 1 and 1.25), in the event that no complete follow-up of new outbreaks, including school-based ones, but nevertheless, the potential for SARS-CoV-2 transmission can be greatly limited with ordinary and extraordinary containment / mitigation measures. ” In recent days, a list of restrictions that the government would renew as of January 7 has been distributed, namely:
- The curfew will be renewed along with the obligation to wear the mask outdoors and indoors and to maintain the distance of at least one meter. the prohibition of assembly and the power, for mayors, to close streets and squares will remain in force;
- stores will reopen but there will no longer be closing hours; the closure of shopping centers will be renewed on holidays and the eve of holidays;
- bars and restaurants will reopen until 6 pm with the above rules: maximum four seats at the table and mask when not eating; take-out and home delivery will continue to be allowed;
- bus and subway capacity remains fixed at 50 percent and there are no plans to increase seats after January 15;
However, this list of restrictions may be out of date, as the restrictions in the red and orange zones are stricter. However, the government must find a political synthesis within itself before beginning work on the new provision. The meeting between Speranza and the CTS will serve the executive to bring a series of proposals to the table and begin negotiations. Meanwhile, on a common note, the governors of the Lega Massimiliano Fedriga (Friuli Venezia Giulia), Attilio Fontana (Lombardy), Maurizio Fugatti (Trentino), Christian Solinas (Sardinia), Nino Spirlì (Calabria), Donatella Tesei (Umbria) and Luca Zaia (Veneto) at the end of the meeting with the secretary of the League, Matteo Salvini attacks the government: “As governors we have done everything necessary in terms of security for transport in agreement with the prefects, but there are still many questions Critics to be resolved Containment of the pandemic Timely decisions need to be taken to provide certainty to the millions of people involved. We are concerned about the government’s silence on critical issues of the reopening of schools. In addition, it is necessary to immediately guarantee what the The government promised the regions: health personnel to carry out vaccinations. Today the territories are transferring doctors and nurses from other activities to make vaccines, activities that “They are essential and we run the risk of putting more stress on an already depleted system.”
