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The weekend of January 9 and 10 all of Italy in orange zone, with bars and restaurants also closed for lunch if not take out. From January 7 to 15, dpcm expiration date of December 3, change between regions only for reasons of necessity as is already the case. In addition, there is the possibility of an extension of up to 15 years of the prohibition to accommodate more than two relatives or friends at home, excluding those under 14 years of age. They are some of the hypothesis emerged at the summit between the prime minister Giuseppe Conte, the majority of the heads of delegation, the Minister of Regional Affairs Francesco Boccia, the owner of the Salutand Roberto Speranza, the undersecretary of the presidency of the Council Riccardo Fraccaro, the coordinator of the Cts Agostino Miozzo, the president of the ISS Silvio Brusaferro and the president of the Superior Council of Health Franco Locatelli. The reinforced measures introduced for the Christmas me New Year They expire on January 6 and, given that in recent days the ratio between coronavirus positives and tested cases has grown steadily, the executive is evaluating whether and how to extend the restrictions also from January 7 onwards. Measurements must fit a‘order of Hope valid January 7-15.
Expert concerns – me numbersAccording to experts, they speak for themselves. “We still cannot speak of a return to normal life. We are living in a pandemic, the virus circulates a lot in our country and the health services are under stress ”, is the alarm launched by the president of the Higher Institute of Health. Silvio Brusaferro of the columns of Corriere della Sera. “The epidemic is not over, it is still in a very dangerous phase.” And the infections of yesterday, Saturday, January 3, confirm it: 11,831 cases but with only 67 thousand swabs and one growth rate increasing to 17%.
What worries doctors and scientists above all is theRt trend. “It is increasing again and the number of positives is still high – explains Brusaferro – We also see the same thing happening in other European countries where the curves are growing and this common disease should warn us. We cannot fool ourselves into staying on the sidelines. Therefore, the general situation requires great attention ”. The reason? According to experts, it could be found in the “relaxation” that took place before Christmas, that is, in the shopping days when all over Italy the streets are filled with shops, often making the fundamental rule of distancing disappear. “Since December 20th all parameters are growing – underlines the teacher Enrico Bucci, a biologist at Temple University in Philadelphia from the pages of Republic – But what impresses me is the relationship between new cases and people cleaning for the first time: it is 38.5%. More than one in three people who have a swab for the first time are positive. While on November 23 it was 31.8% “.
The fear of scientists is that curve may get out quickly, thus going towards a third wave, or, if we prefer, a long tail of the second. “We must prevent the curve from starting again and this can be done by rigorously and systematically adopting the prevention measures that Italians now know: mask, distance, hand hygiene, not at all at meetings”, warns Brusaferro, interviewed by the Via Solferino newspaper. . Resource to which is added Walter Ricciardi, consultant to the Ministry of Health: “The epidemic is starting again and if a The policy of indiscriminate reopening would be like opening the doors to the virus. putting the national health service in difficulties between the end of January and the beginning of February. “Of course the vaccine gives hope, but, experts say, it is still early.” The reasoning ‘well, now there is a vaccine and then I can go back to do as before ‘is not correct – specifies Brusaferro – On the contrary, thinking this way ends up favoring the circulation of the virus. ”Therefore, it is impossible, at least for now,” to do without mitigation measures. “
Hypotheses in the field – Also for this reason the ideas for a reboot afterparties are still on the table. Possibilities include continuing with a new “reinforced yellow zone“On the Christmas model, with the closure of activities on holidays and pre-holidays and limits on travel, which will be launched immediately, at least for a month, with a new dpcm, that is, until the beginning of February. Or the hypothesis of extend the current measures (those of the Holidays) until January 15, and then evaluate the numbers and measures, thus avoiding the “free all” in the week between January 6 and the natural expiration of the dpcm. further modification of the mechanism to decree red or orange zones, thus lowering the RT threshold, as assumed by the newspaper Republic. Today, in fact, Rt is set at 1.25 for the passage in the orange zone and at 1.5 for the red zone, while an idea could be to lower the threshold by 0.25: in this way, according to the latest Monitoring data, three Regions would become orange, Calabria, Liguria and Veneto, another three would be in balance, Basilicata, Lombardy and Puglia.
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