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After the Epiphany, come an ordinance from the Ministry of Health, a decree law and a new Dpcm, which will bring new rules and prohibitions throughout Italy. On January 7, the restrictions decided by Decree Law No. 172/2020, which brought all of Italy to the red and orange zone at Christmas 2020, while on the 15th the effects of legislative decree 158/2020 (extended by the last law) and the Dpcm of 3 will no longer be in force December: in addition, On January 31, the state of emergency declared in October 2020 expires and it must also be renewed. For the Giuseppe Conte government, therefore, a long legislative work is expected that will have to take into account the figures of the coronavirus epidemic and the effects of the restrictions during the Christmas holidays 2020. With a question mark: the school. Eyes on the regions most affected by the start of the emergency. A big question remains about the opening of schools on January 7.
The bans of January 7 and the risk of the red and orange zone
Let’s start at the end. January 7 and 15 will be the two key days: after Epiphany the government will re-establish the system of yellow, orange and red zones throughout the country, assigning a color to each region. The tool to do this in all likelihood will be an ordinance of the Ministry of Health that must be enacted before January 6: the Minister of Health in an interview released before the New Year stated that the system has worked and therefore will be restored. But which regions will have the most restricted areas? The Undersecretary of Health, Sandra Zampa, has predicted that the whole country will be in the yellow zone, while the adviser to Minister Walter Ricciardi has explicitly asked to extend the limitations of the red zone until 3:00 p.m. and today, in an interview with The impression, the virologist Lorenzo Pregliasco predicts the arrival of the third wave and has also asked him to continue like this: “The color red was necessary because in December the population was not careful enough. During the holidays some tears were allowed, but lunches, the dinners and gatherings should be forgotten until the vaccine. ” According to Pregliasco, “vaccination will not give short-term results for several months, approximately until the end of 2021.” And the virologist on the reopening of schools declares: “With the current circulation of the virus, schools are dangerous both because of what happens inside them and because of the traffic they unleash, but it makes sense to try to partially reopen them to evaluate the effects over time. . and eventually recalibrate. Also because schools have equal dignity with respect to essential services and workplaces, which until now we have tried to privilege, sacrificing leisure and tourism ”.
The government will decide next week, after the checks of the experts in the monitoring of the ISS, with a meeting of the control room that will assign the “colors” to the regions according to the contagion situation. “Calendar problem: the report of the ISS and the ministry usually arrives towards the weekend (Friday, but in these two weeks it was ahead of Thursday) but at midnight on Wednesday 6 the restrictions will expire: if the usual calendar is respected, a large part of Italy ” risk “the yellow zone for a day before the ordinance arrives, but it is likely that the ministry will advance everything precisely to the day of Epiphany or before.
The coming ministry ordinance for Epiphany and the six regions at risk
In fact, the Corriere della Sera writes today that the report will arrive on January 5 and that the special observations are the six regions where infections are growing again and for which it will be necessary to monitor the health of health structures (Veneto, Calabria , Liguria, Lombardy Puglia Basilicata). The Agi news agency writes that Veneto, Liguria and Calabria with the Rt above 1 run the risk of not leaving the red zone and Puglia, Basilicata and Lombardy could finish in the orange at least. The December 30 monitoring still highlighted critical issues: Lombardy, Trento and Veneto have a probability of more than 50% of exceeding the critical occupancy threshold for beds in intensive care units in 30 days, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Valle d’Aosta , Piedmont, Autonomous Province of Trento and Emilia Romagna for those in the medical area.
For Ansa, on the other hand, it is currently expected that, after the decree, the Regions will return to the color band assigned before the Christmas closure, that is, all yellow (except for Abruzzo orange, which, however, according to its president Marsilio has deserved meanwhile the yellow zone), but the trend of contagion does not make it clear that this is the case. The report of December 30 also indicates other critical problems: in particular, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Valle d’Aosta, Piedmont, the autonomous province of Trento and Emilia Romagna are 50% more likely to exceed the critical occupancy threshold for beds. in the zone. doctor in 30 days, while for Lombardy, Trento and Veneto the same happens with intensive care. To these data is added the case of Sardinia, which has a risk classification ‘not assessable’ and therefore ‘high’, due to the insufficiency of the data provided. In the interview released to the press, however, Pregliasco himself makes some distinctions at the regional level: “Yes, in fact they have particular paths. Lombardy, bent in the first round, now presents a certain resistance, while Veneto encounters new difficulties. the 21 parameters that allow you to change color, because in some cases they have been insufficient. There is no manual for blocking and you have to proceed by trial and error, but it would be good if after 7 all regions adhere to stricter rules ” . In the latest ISS report it was emphasized that:
- the epidemic in Italy remains “still serious due to a high impact on welfare services”;
- In the period from December 8 to 21, 2020, the average transmissibility index Rt calculated in symptomatic cases was equal to 0.93 (range 0.89 – 1.02), increasing slightly in the last three weeks;
- three regions / PPAA (Veneto, Liguria, Calabria) have a punctual Rt greater than 1, therefore, compatible with a type 2 scenario;
- another 3 (Basilicata, Lombardia and Puglia) exceed it in the average value;
- three others approach him (Emilia Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia and Marche);
The type 2 scenario (in total there are 4, explained here) evokes a “situation of sustained and generalized transmissibility but manageable by the health system in the short-medium term, with regional values of Rt included in a systematic and significant way between Rt = 1 and Rt = 1.25 (that is, with estimates of the 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of Rt between 1 and 1.25), in the event that no complete follow-up of new outbreaks, including school-based ones, but nevertheless, the potential for SARS-CoV-2 transmission can be greatly limited with ordinary and extraordinary containment / mitigation measures. ”
The bans from January 7
That said, what prohibitions will come from January 7, when the effects of Legislative Decree 172/2020 will expire, and from 15? The Corriere della Sera summarizes them today, also indicating for which sectors the reopening will be reopened:
- The curfew will be renewed along with the obligation to wear the mask outdoors and indoors and to maintain the distance of at least one meter. the prohibition of assembly and the power, for mayors, to close streets and squares will remain in force;
- stores will reopen but there will no longer be closing hours; the closure of shopping centers will be renewed on holidays and the eve of holidays;
- bars and restaurants will reopen until 6 pm with the above rules: maximum four seats at the table and mask when not eating; take-out and home delivery will continue to be allowed;
- bus and subway capacity remains fixed at 50 percent and there are no plans to increase seats after January 15;
The reopening of ski slopes on January 7 has been canceled and the Scientific Technical Committee has asked the Regions to review the guidelines, while the Ministry of Sport is evaluating together with experts the possibility of reopening gyms and swimming pools from the 15 but for individual use. For the entertainment and culture sector, museums are in the best position to reopen with limited entries. Everything else is offshore. And the school? The date set is January 7, but net of the choice of the ministries of health and education to leave with only 50% of the students in the classroom and with one or two different shifts (lessons from 8 to 14 and 16 , which lasts up to 45 minutes even on Saturday mornings) the Regions are on the warpath: the Governor of Campania Vincenzo De Luca has announced that the schools in his region will not reopen “everything”, but in fact the government does not want to reopen “everything”: “I heard that there is talk of the reopening of the school year on January 7 – he said – these things drive me crazy. How do you say ‘open’ without checking the situation? In Campania we are not open all day 7”. In Campania, the first and second primary schools will resume on 7 January, on the 11th of the primary school, on the 18th the three classes of the lower secondary school and on the 25th the upper secondary school. Veneto and Lazio have doubts but for now they do not intend to go against the government. And he seems to want to do the same in Puglia, where Governor Michele Emiliano was able to confirm the ordinance with which months ago he allowed parents of primary and secondary school students to choose between face-to-face lessons or distance education. A ploy that highlights the widening gap between Regions that, however, do not appear to be fully prepared. It is no coincidence that, as Stefano Bonaccini, president of the Conference of the Regions reiterated yesterday, that taking up the lessons in the presence of 50% was an explicit request from the majority of the territories to the government that, before welcoming it, anticipated a 75%. initial.
Finally, from a document from the Regions, the request, now under consideration by the ISS, to make some changes that could affect the 21 indicators to establish the allocation of zones (yellow, orange, red) as part of monitoring the Cabaña. direction. Among these, according to what was learned, a different method of calculating antigenic and molecular buffers was carried out, which could then affect the positivity rate. The definition of ‘cases’ and test execution strategies could also be re-evaluated. Il Fatto Quotidiano adds that the Regions request “that the total number of tests carried out by individual Regions be clearly specified in all Ministry and Ministry bulletins.” Protection ”, which today only the molecular ones report. The unhealthy ones, the ministry assures, will be included in the newsletters. The risk is that, with detection, the regions significantly reduce the positivity rate.
Towards the new Dpcm January 2021: latest news
Therefore, the eyes were mainly focused on the northern regions, but not only. For example: what will happen from January 7 in Lombardy, the most affected in general since the beginning of the emergency? What rules will be in effect? Before the Christmas decree, Lombardy had had problems landing on December 19 in the yellow zone. However, it is not certain that the region that Fontana has led since January 7 is in the same band, that of moderate risk. Lombardy today has better figures than Veneto, but it could end up in the orange zone (as perhaps also Puglia and Basilicata, as some newspapers report today). It should be remembered that in the Lombardy region the Rt index rose to 1, a significant figure. All hypotheses, no certainty. The government’s decision will come only after the publication of the new supervision of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità.
Meanwhile, regarding the reopening of the schools on January 7, the doubts of the principals overlap: the only certainty is that the life of Italian students will be very different from before, because class times will be diluted during the day in an unprecedented way.
