17% positivity rate, hypothesis restrictions until mid-month

01/03/2021 Health, Italy, Sports



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Coronavirus positivity rate rises to nearly 18% and now on the restart of Regions, as of January 7 again divided into three bands, weighs theinfection trend. Grow hand in hand concerns about reopening schoolsAlthough the beginning of face-to-face teaching at 50% in the institutions remains on the schedule set for January 7, there are still many doubts among governors. As much as to pressure the president of the Conference of the Regions, Stefano Bonaccini, to question that date: “I think it would be correct for the government to reconvene us in the next few hours and together we make a decision, in a very secular way,” he says. .

Before a new decree that will overcome the last Dpcm expires on 15, we also look at what will happen in the coming weeks: the Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza, signed the ordinance with which reopening of the ski resorts on January 18. And a flash opens gyms with the proposal of the Coordinator of Sports of the Regions, Tiziana Gibelli, who assumes the resumption from January 15 under the guarantee of strict rules.

The location of the territories in the various zones – yellow, orange or red – Instead, it will be decided by following the follow-up that will arrive in the first half of next week. TO risk the red zone for now they are mainly Veneto, Liguria and Calabria, but also Puglia, Basilicata and Lombardy. Other warning indicators refer to Friuli Venezia Giulia, Valle d’Aosta, Piedmont, the autonomous province of Trento and Emilia Romagna, which are 50% more likely to exceed the critical occupancy threshold for beds in the medical area by 30 days. while for Lombardy, Trento and Veneto the same happens with intensive care. The situation in Sardinia is uncertain, while government sources assure that Abruzzo will return to the yellow zone from the 7th.

Regarding the trend of contagion, the latest national data are not comforting: the bulletin speaks of 364 deaths and 11,831 new cases of Covid in a small number of swabs made, just over 67 thousand. The incidence of positivity has increased by almost three points, to 17.6%. (and almost 5 if you look at the 2020 queue: it was in 12.6% only on December 31), and the number of patients admitted to intensive care is increasing again, although only by 16 units. According to several experts, the effects of the Prime Minister’s Decree of October 24 have already passed and throughout Italy the epidemic curve rises again, so much so that the estimates of the statistician Livio Fenga point to some 600 thousand cases in total at the end of January, compared to the current 577 thousand.

And I am at least 14 regions where estimates indicate a resumption of infections from Veneto. The survey shows an upward trend in the autonomous provinces of Trento and Bolzano, in Veneto, Emilia Romagna, Lazio, Marche and Umbria. For the mathematician from Cnr, Giovanni Sebastiani, the hope is that “the recovery will be mitigated by the effects of the measures introduced on Christmas Eve, the effects of which will be seen in the second week of January.” According to the expert “it would be prudent to see the trend in the data and only then decide whether to reopen the schools.”