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The most feared variant of Sars-CoV-2 (B.1.1.7) that reaches at least 33 countries to become predominant. Shots running slowly to insufficient “raw material” (Italy vaccinated 0.07 of the population, to make up a tenth of Denmark. Israel, on the other hand, 12 percent). What are the outlook for the pandemic in 2021? It is the great unknown that one wonders, but the answer is obvious.
Countries that may immunize a percentage of the population that is considered necessary to achieve the so-called herd immunity (70-80%) can begin to be considered outside of the emergency. And that’s the goal that is set Israel, protagonist of a rapid prophylaxis campaign, supported by a grassroots organization capable of responding to all disasters and by an impressive offer of doses.
Italy? Like other European neighbors, not in good shape, Judging by what the epidemiologist Stefania Salmaso, formerly of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, says on the Scienzinrete portal, nominated in the group of experts that, within Aifa, the national drug agency, deals with the vaccine surveillance system. “All of our current efforts are aimed at reducing the infamous Rt (the rate of transmission of the virus) in a not inconsiderable way by taking steps to reduce person-to-person contacts. Dealing with a virus that is efficient in its ability to spread makes the way difficult, “he says. In fact, we must start from a premise. Achievement of herd immunity cannot be separated from Rt. In fact, there is a very precise mathematical relationship: “The more contagious an infection, the greater the proportion of people who must be immunized to create a barrier and interrupt the chain of transmission.” Moral, it is very important that citizens understand how important it is to maintain “natural” prevention measures (use of the mask, hand washing and distancing) and do not get carried away by the euphoria of vaccination thinking that they have escaped it. By implementing these behaviors, the virus can still keep itself at bay, regardless of the form in which it presents itself, that is, the variants. “Protecting yourself well means defending yourself against all viral strains that in any infection have a high probability of recombining,” says Salmaso.
The European Center for Disease Control, ECDC, has just published a risk assessment document linked to the variant that was initially called English and has now become cosmopolitan. The estimate is that increased contagiousness could increase the Rt index It is not inconsiderable that Imperial College researchers, in a study anticipated by the BBC, calculated between 0.4 and 0.7. In other words. A vaccination campaign has more effect the lower the circulation of the virus. that must be countered. Especially when specific and effective therapies cannot be counted on to prevent serious cases and deaths.
January 2, 2021 (change January 2, 2021 | 21:50)
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