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The contagion in Sicily has not stopped its career and the Region (although with very different figures from other realities in the country) registers a vertical growth in cases.
The data, not very comforting, arise from the statistical model developed by a team of researchers from the Department of Economics, Business and Statistics of the University of Palermo. Although the numbers are updated to December 30, the trend is confirmed by the number of positives that in Sicily in recent days has always been around a thousand new cases, with an Rt (the value that indicates the speed of spread of the infection) which jumped to more than 1.10.
Looking at the graphs made by professors Vito Muggeo, Andrea Consiglio, Gianluca Sottile, Vincenzo Giuseppe Genova, Giorgio Bertolazzi, Giovanni Boscaino and Mariano Porcu (from the University of Cagliari), published in this site the growth of the percentage of positives as a function of the number of swabs performed in sicily in two weeks it went from minus 1.7 to plus 1.7 percent and the “adjusted” Rt index from 0.90 to 1.10. The hospitalization curve is also moving upward, which between November 24 and December 25 (of) grew by less than 1.6 percent and increased by 1.7 percent from December 25 to 30. The intensive care situation is calmer.
The Sicilian situation is not in line with what is happening nationwide, where the curve as of December 30 continued to fall and the “adjusted” Rt index was 0.93, and not even with what is happening in other regions, particularly affected by Covid. In lombardyFor example, the growth rate of the positive curve in real buffers is negative (-1.1) and the “adjusted” Rt rate is 0.94. On the island, however, things are better than that in Campania, where the number of new positives on the basis of the swabs made even grows 6.1 percent and the “adjusted” Rt index even reaches 1.39.
Paradoxically, however, if you go and look the comparison between regions, it turns out that in Sicily, again as of December 30, the positive rate in the number of tampons made is 19.4 percent, therefore almost one in five, compared to 17.7 in Campania, while that nationally the figure is up to 27.4 percent.
The provincial data, on the other hand, are very different from those registered in other territories. In the first place, we explain that the classification of the provinces is given, in this study, according to the estimation of two quantities: the speed with which the epidemic advances, which is the value of Rt, and the average number of new cases per day for every 10,000 inhabitants in the axis of you order. While evaluating a possible uncertainty about the real number of registered infections (which is probably less than the real number of reported positives), the province of Agrigento stops at a Rt of 0.8 and an average of new cases per 100 thousand inhabitants of 0.4. These are the best data, to date, among those recorded in Sicily. However, it is clear that this also depends on the number of swabs performed.
