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An Imperial College report prepared in collaboration with the University of Edinburgh, the British Ministry of Health and other institutes illustrates the situation of the spread of the English variant in England, a situation that suggests pessimistic forecasts for the near future.
The pre-printed report is perhaps one of the most comprehensive assessments of the impact and spread of the B117 variant, combining epidemiological studies conducted in the UK with data from a large number of samples across the UK.
As the epidemiologist and expert in statistical genetics Deepti Gurdasani explains, the British strain B117 has very worrying characteristics, which indicate why it is necessary to act immediately.
Meanwhile, there is a very rapid increase in the spread of the B117 variant in London, South East England and Eastern Europe, rising to 80% in mid-December. Regarding the distribution in England, the estimated increase in prevalence varies by region between 15% in Yorkshire and 85% in south-east England.
Therefore, although the spread of the new strain is still limited in many parts of England, the trend in some regions (Oxford and Birmingham) suggests that there will be similar and rapid increases in spread in other areas, unless a severe. measurements.
The Rt index associated with the English variant strain would be 1.74 times higher than the previous strain. This would greatly favor its diffusion. For example, it would mean an R of 0.9 increasing to 1.6.
Then there is quite unpublished data. The distribution of the new variant with respect to the previous variant by age group indicates that the variant is more widespread among subjects in the 0-9 and 10-19 age group, at least according to the data available up to mid-December. Worrisome data for several reasons.
It is clear that the spread between these age groups could have been favored by the opening of schools during the closure. It could also mean that children with the English variant are more likely to develop symptoms and therefore be evaluated, and in any case these results are the result of studies and not random samples, so they should be read with caution. It does not necessarily mean that there is an increased susceptibility to the disease in children, but it certainly means that it is widespread among children.
The standard variant, on the other hand, still predominates among the older age groups (at least among those evaluated). Why is this important? Because it dictates reaction times, which must be very fast.
We know that the spread of the virus that begins in the younger age groups inevitably infects older people and ultimately leads to serious illness and death. We have already seen this dynamic from the first wave onwards and around the world.
Also according to epidemiologist Gurdasani’s evaluations of the Imperial study, the geographic and demographic distribution of the English variant indicates that, while the pandemic in the UK is already in a critical situation, there is a clear possibility that it could get much worse.
If infection is not curbed in children, the new variant is likely to soon become dominant in adults as well, potentially leading to an even faster spread of infection in older age groups, with serious consequences on fatality and pressure on hospitals.
The study shows that the R index associated with the variant during blockade it was 1.45 compared with 0.92 for other strains. This means that cases with the variant continued to grow rapidly during the last block.
The English variant is associated with an increase in R from 0.4 to 0.7. An easy to understand example from Guardasani: assuming 2000 cases per day in a region today, with this diffusion trend it would reach 62,000 cases per day in 2 months, compared to 5,187 if the R index remained constant at 1.1. Therefore, it is easy to imagine the number of deaths.
All the evidence, according to Guardasani, points in the same direction: urgent action must be taken to limit the spread throughout the UK. Letting this variant spread is not an option. And schools should be closed until they can secure them and prevent the spread of the variant. Failure to do so would have the disastrous results suggested by statistical and epidemiological studies.
And since the strain has also been isolated in China and the United States, if the data from these studies is confirmed, no one has more time to waste.
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