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Matteo Renzi wants to bring the hypothesis of a new government to the Quirinal, taking the fall of Giuseppe Conte for granted. What could happen precisely in that parliament where the prime minister said he wanted to bring the crisis of the majority and where, according to the leader of Italia Viva, it could sink as it happened to Romano Prodi in 2008. And he would definitely leave the stage.
The new government that Renzi wants to take to the Quirinal
In fact, Sergio Mattarella’s speech on the responsibility of the leaders does not seem to have touched the senator for Scandicci. On the contrary: the antecedents of the newspapers portray him as even more determined to overthrow the executive and not to give the possibility of reissues like the Count-Ter. According to Francesco Verderami, who talks about it in the Corriere della SeraOn the contrary, according to Renzi, the President of the Republic “did not stop us”, that is, he did not veto and even less took sides in the conflict between IV and the prime minister. But “the solution must be brought to the head of state.” That is a new government with a new prime minister. And Renzi also indicates a precise date for the confrontation: “It was a false step. He thought he was playing the game with us, to scare us and point out to us as irresponsible that we do not have the good of the country at heart.” it is the Palazzo Chigi that today seems immobile before the emergency. And in the absence of news, which I imagine there will not be, on January 7 we will assume the responsibility of withdrawing our delegation of ministers ”.
It should be noted that January 7 is also the date on which the system of yellow, orange and red zones will re-enter into force in Italy and that within a week the effects of the decrees and Dpcm issued in December will expire, by What There will be a total and complete emergency situation on which it would be at least inappropriate to graft the effects of a government crisis. Because in the meantime it seems that everything is decided. And because the plan to deploy a troop of “leaders” to replace Italia Viva’s votes is taking place on the high seas, also because it would be difficult for the Democratic Party and the 5-Star Movement to justify the election. And on the other hand, the voting solution, which had been proposed as a nightmare for the Renzians to return to softer advice, seems to have moved away from the perspectives of the Democratic Party: at least that is how it would seem from the coldness of Franceschini and Bettini.
New Dpcm, ordinances and decree law: the bans of January 7 and the risk of the red and orange zone for six regions
The fall of Conte and the distrust of January 7
Ilario Lombardo writes today in La Stampa that in the meantime ministers and collaborators have been called to Rome to organize a summit with the leaders of the majority. The goal is to reach a compromise in extremis on the Recovery Fund and the reorganization of the government. But Conte should be willing to retract much of what he said at the press conference at the end of the year to accept it. First, the delegation to the secret services. The alternative, if the attempt to close a negotiation in the secret rooms fails in two days, could be to raise the council of ministers to 4 and ask there for a vote on Conte’s new plan. Thus assuming in the face of defeat in the vote and / or the resignation of the ministers and with the result of having to appear in the Chamber to check the confidence immediately afterwards. I mean, everything according to Renzi’s plan.
Meanwhile, the ranks of those responsible will continue to move. The name of the group is already there, and it is that Italy 2023 registered by Raffaele Fantetti, who left Forza Italia and is ready to become the dominus dei contiani of the government. The new political entity could look up the numbers of a group in the House and Senate bringing together centrists, azzurri, former M5 and even former Italia Viva members who would resign from Renzi to extend the term. There is talk of two or four senators willing to resign from Renzi: they are the same ones who had tried to return to the Democratic Party in December and finally received no for an answer. Now the new group would be willing to welcome each other but, as we have explained, even if all these shirt change hypotheses materialize, the numbers would at least continue to be dancers. In the contest, Tommaso Ciriaco continues Republic, there are also four others close to Giovanni Toti (such as Paolo Romani) and as many UDC senators (who would bring an electoral symbol as a dowry, useful to form a group), two from Maie and the former FI Sandra Lonardo Mastella, plus some former grillino. The PD plan is clearly an alternative to all of this:
The goal is to buy time, negotiate, bring just a perfectible Recovery draft to the Council of Ministers on January 7, then send it to Parliament and, in the meantime, agree on a Count. Or even going through a political rupture, as long as it is not parliamentarian, making a subsequent remediation impossible. Threatening the elections immediately, hoping that at the end of a long round of mediations, however, we will return to the starting point: in Conte ter, with Italia Viva inside
What if there is a crisis?
But the numbers? In the Senate, the majority without the Renzianos can count on 151 compact votes: 92 from the M5, 35 from the Democratic Party, 8 from the autonomies and 16 from the Mixed group, now considering the former FI Lonardo and the senator for life Mario Monti. The opposition has 149. From these could come the names of those responsible, who according to Daily fact It could be 4-5: the 3 UDCs (Antonio de Poli, Paola Binetti and Maurizio Sacconi) who on December 9 decided to leave the classroom in the vote for the reform of the Month, but also a couple of strength players including Andrea Cangini . Thus, the majority would rise to 155. Then there are Italia Viva and Gruppo Misto, from where the votes needed to reach the magic number could come:
According to rumors, at least 5 Renzian senators out of 18 would be willing not to follow the leader in the event of a crisis (Iv would disappear from the Senate with the elections): the names running are Giuseppe Cucca, Eugenio Comincini, Donatella Conzatti, Leonardo Grimani and Gelsomina Vono. Even if only three decided to resign from Renzi, it would come to 158, a quorum vote.
In Mixed, there are five votes to dance: the 3 of Cambiamo! (Gaetano Quagliariello, Paolo Romani and Massimo Vittorio Berruti) who have repeatedly winked at the majority and former M5S Gregorio De Falco, who votes from time to time on the measures. With the four votes it would reach 162, without the three “Totianos” at 159.
Finally, Il Fatto always practices the ancient art of political prediction, trying to predict what might happen in the event of Conte’s downfall as a result of Renzi’s threats of materialization. And he explains that the scenarios on the table are three:
- the first is the most predictable, that is, the prime minister and Renzi reach an agreement and one more minister goes to Italia Viva, the same leader from IV or María Elena Boschi; in this case Conte would remain in his place;
- the second is the replacement of Italia Viva by the famous patrol of leaders, which, however, does not yet have a credible reference and name and surname to carry out the government; Also in this case Conte would remain in his place;
- the third scenario, on the other hand, is the most imaginative: Conte’s farewell to Palazzo Chigi after two and a half years and his replacement by a “new” name.
And here, however, the most disparate hypotheses come into play, depending on the majority that comes forward to support the new government. Mario Draghi’s hypothesis could lead to open support from all of Forza Italia and even from the League of Salvini and Giorgetti. And today it seems more like a political fiction. The idea of handing over the Palazzo Chigi to Luigi Di Maio, who is taken over by Renzi, has already seen the no of the M5 leader who would make a huge effort internally to explain how he managed to resign as Political Head to meet later. at the Palazzo Chigi. Instead, the third hypothesis would see a Democratic leader take to the field to drink the prime minister’s bitter cup (so to speak) in the name of governance and stability. The stone of the scandal would be Conte and his defenestration would take Dario Franceschini or Lorenzo Guerini to Palazzo Chigi.
