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A slow decline in the contagion curve, but with the TR increasing and – in the first bulletin of 2021 – the positive rate at 14.1%, continues to grow. With these data a part of the country, at the end of the Christmas decree, on January 6, it could end up in the red or orange zone again: for now, mainly Veneto, Liguria and Calabria are at risk, which according to the latest ISS report have exceeded the value of 1 Rt and could be placed in the list of territories subject to more restrictions.
Very close to that threshold are also Puglia, Basilicata and Lombardy.
It is currently expected that, after the decree, the Regions will return to the color band assigned before the Christmas closure, that is, all yellow (except Abruzzo orange), but the trend of contagion does not make it clear that this is the case. The government will decide next week after the controls carried out by the experts on the new report from the Istituto Superiore di Sanità. The date of the Regional Monitoring control room meeting has not yet been announced.
The report of December 30 points out several criticisms: in particular, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Valle d’Aosta, Piedmont, Autonomous province of Trento and Emilia Romagna are 50% more likely to exceeding the critical occupancy threshold for beds in the medical area in 30 days, while for Lombardy, Trentino and Veneto the same goes for intensive therapy. To these data is added the case of Sardinia, which has a risk classification “not assessable” and therefore “high”, due to the lack of completeness of the data provided.
Trentino, therefore, returns from the classification it had at the beginning of December, that is, “yellow”. But it is not said that you will keep it, given that during the Christmas holidays we had a very high number of deaths and hospital employment did not drop significantly.
The Regions, however, want “Check parameters”. In fact, with a document from the Regions, the request to make some changes that could affect the 21 indicators to establish the allocation of the zones (yellow, orange, red) as part of the monitoring of the control room, was examined by the ISS. Among these, as learned, a different method of calculating antigenic and molecular buffers was carried out, which could then affect the positivity rate. The definition of ‘cases’ and test execution strategies could also be re-evaluated.
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