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ll cold and temperature changes – warns Fabrizio Pregliasco, virologist and Hygiene researcher at the University of Milan – may cause a sharp increase in the cases of the Covid epidemic ». The situation, which is already worrying due to the number of infected and deceased, could therefore degenerate in the coming months. “Taking into account these new risks, much attention will be paid to how to manage precautionary measures, which must be even more prudent and rigorous so as not to find ourselves in an unmanageable condition.”
Why might the number of Sars Cov 2 infections increase even more with the winter season?
“Sudden changes in temperature are unfortunately remarkably effective in promoting the spread of respiratory viruses such as influenza, but also those similar to influenza. It is surely one of the facilitating elements for Covid as well, because it blocks what is called “mucociliary clearance”, which is a purifying renewal mechanism of mucus throughout the bronchial tree. “
What happens when the temperature drops?
The cilia barrier, placed under the mucus layer, ensures continuity of flow. In fact, there is a continuous production of mucus at the level of the alveoli and, with a movement similar to that of the paddles, the entire mucociliary cleaning system ensures that there is a flow that goes from the bottom up. In winter, however, this entire cleaning process can be blocked due to the sudden change in temperature. This reduces an additional protective barrier against viruses. Hence the element that characterizes the facilitation of the appearance of flu and flu-like forms. Let’s not forget that in winter people stay more at home or indoors and therefore have a greater risk of contagion or transmission of the virus.
So, nothing good is expected for the management of the epidemic.
“We have seen this in the progress of the epidemic in the January period. Let’s not forget that the virus began to circulate in November last year, precisely during the cold period, while then during the summer, as we have seen, certainly also thanks to the lockdown and warmer temperatures, the spread was reduced. “.
However, in some countries, such as Brazil or Florida, Sars Cov 2 has spread despite the heat.
“Obviously, influenza viruses have a large proportion of susceptible subjects, they do not stop under the weather conditions. However, transmission is certainly much easier if there is a thermal shock. ‘
What impact could this factor have on the advance of the epidemic?
“We hope that the negative effects of the flu will not add to the Sars Cov 2 infection. In order not to further clog hospitals, already at the limit, we hope that the influenza virus infections will remain at low levels, as it happened. in Australia. This year, in its winter which is our August, the season was really very limited in terms of the number of flu infections, because masks and social distancing are an element that also blocks the spread of flu. However , it is clear that, after the holidays, we will have to be very careful to implement very strict and prudent measures.
What measures must be reinforced to avoid ending a rebound in patients in January?
“Above all, great attention to the management of public transport will be essential. The service, also with a view to the reopening of the school, is expected to be reorganized as soon as possible.
However, until now, although several months have passed since the start of the pandemic, it has not been possible to do so.
“But it is a fundamental aspect. The staggering of the hours of students or workers is ineffective if the frequency of the number of available vehicles is not increased, precisely to avoid crowds in these places of special risk ”.
Meanwhile, the trend of the epidemic does not give us peace of mind.
“Unfortunately, the current situation is affected by the reopening decided on December 8. The prolonged blockade was modulated, keeping the infection curve flat without raising it. Basically, it is not possible to control the disease, but only to mitigate it, that is, to reduce the speed of the number of new cases.
Last Updated: January 2, 00:15
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