Government crisis, how will it end? Here are the five possible scenarios: Corriere.it

Well my best wishes to all of us. This could be one of the last meetings that this government holds in full swing, right? On Wednesday January 30, the last council of ministers of the year, a group of executive members spoke with the prime minister after the meeting and called for urgent changes to paragraph 8 of article 1 of the budget law. Some of the ministers evoke, in homage to those who think that superstition works mainly in reverse, the darkest of omens. And that’s the downfall. In fact, removed Dario FranceschiniFond of conversations reserved for the thesis that Renzi will stop at the last corner before the showdown, everyone is convinced that the current set-up is doomed to failure. The other ministers of the pd action are spokespersons for the office of Nicola ZingarettiAnd if a crack opens, we should take advantage of that crack just to vote. Conte remains, still convinced that this crisis can be cooled down by going to the recovery plan comparison. Otherwise, you already said, I will go to Parliament. The moment of presentation of the Plan will mark the moment of the crisis. That could end five different ways.

Count 3

A second after the presentation of the Recovery plan, if Conte does not accept our proposals, our government delegation will resign, continues to explain MAttheus renzi. exist two variables: what Conte decides informally present the Plan in a majority assembly or directly in cabinet (the most popular dates are January 5 or 6). The result does not change: Renzian’s ministers Bellanova and Bonetti resign (January 7), the Prime Minister acknowledges that the ongoing movements Madama Palace are not enough to arithmetically replace the numbers of Italia viva ed avoid going to parliament keeping a reservation card that otherwise, in case of blatant mistrust in the Chambers, I would not have. In this case, the blue chariots would direct him towards the Quirinal, where I would postpone the mandate in the hands of the head of state. Negotiation between the parties that are part of the current majority would go hand in hand with consultations. Conte would stay in the chair, the first level ministers would be untouchable (Economy, Foreign Affairs but also Health and Community Policies), Renzi would collect the victory and he would be the architect of the new phase. The leader of Italy alive would have some papers to justify before the country that he was not a round armchairs. His favorite wild card is the scheme with two vice premieres, one for the M5S (Di Maio) and the other for the Pd (Franceschini). The most effective would be convince Conte to give up a month.
45% chance

The Count 2 bis

the Prime Minister’s preferred setting. A team composition government that rewards the ambitions of Italia Viva but preserves the executive even in its current name. A Conte 2, in short, in the Conte 2 bis variant. Practically, Pd e M5S – obviously accompanied by the moral suasion of the head of government – they should fight for persuade some government ministers to leave their posts be replaced, and without this being accompanied by the opening of a real crisis. Renzi is hard enough, what they think of the Palace. But many times thinking of the straightest path is the best way not to rule it out completely. Among the departments interested in moral suasion would be the Ministry of Education. Lucia azzolina and the Minister of Transport Paola De Micheli. An M5S and another from the Democratic Party, with Italy alive that would be the protagonist in the new division of government boxes. A shakeup, in short. In the lightest version. the classic tie that pleases everyone without giving the impression of having won over anyone; but leaving all players with the feeling that they have lost something. For this reason, the chances of success of this scheme are low, at least for the moment.
Possibility. twenty%

The government of Giallorossi without Conte

The real ace up the Prime Minister’s sleeve, according to the reconstruction off the record that one of the top ministers did this morning, which is unlikely, if the the perimeter of the majority is still the current one, someone can take his place. But the possibility cannot be ruled out a priori, especially if Conte decides to respond to Renzi’s crisis by appearing before the Chambers to play the Managers’ lottery. If those numbers did not come out, Renzi could at that moment aim for the maximum possible result: declare that a force (at that moment) officially indispensable to give life to a new government, namely Italia Viva, shows its willingness to do so as long as driving is another. In short, the hunt for Conte’s successor would open with all the players from the big party in the front row. Since Di Maio a Gypsies, what passes through Dario Franceschini.
15% chance